The Study On PPP Of Public Housing Project Risk Identification And Evaluation

With the continuous development of the real estate industry,housing prices continue to rise,coupled with accelerated progress in urbanization,housing problems become more and more low-income groups facing the main living difficulties,to alleviate this situation,the State Council established and gradually Improve the protection of housing system,and in recent years to vigorously promote the construction of public rental,speeding up the implementation of public rental,low-rent housing merger policy.But a large number of construction projects to bring a huge funding gap,the Government is difficult to provide construction funds alone,with the corresponding private capital is strong,residential savings from 2008 to 2014,just six years to double.Such a huge amount of private capital became the government's implementation of the PPP model,the introduction of private capital into the realm of public infrastructure.We can see that the foreign research is relatively mature,the domestic research is relatively Sentimental;the relevant risk factor identification and evaluation of the research less.However,the PPP model has its own unique characteristics and many unique risks.The purpose of this paper is to identify these risk factors comprehensively and evaluate the sensitivity of important risk factors.Finally,the risk factors of PPP The sensitivity of public rental projects,private investment decision-making whether the investment project construction has important practical significance.The article mainly studies the risk factors of PPP public rental project through the following points.Firstly,through the study of a large number of related literatures,literature frequency analysis method is adopted to identify the risk factors faced by PPP model project,and the risk factors of PPP projects are identified 13 categories and 49 kinds,and the identified second risk factors Factor analysis,the main components extracted,and finally identified eight categories of 25 risk factors.Secondly,the improved sensitivity analysis method is adopted to introduce the PERT technology into the statistical probability field.By combining the probability distribution and the traditional sensitivity analysis method,the defects of the single method are perfected,and the main risk factors facing the PPP project The risk sensitivity of all kinds of risk factors is calculated,and the order of sensitivity is government credit risk> cost variation risk> franchise period fluctuation risk> duration change risk> fee income fluctuation risk> force majeure risk> project attractive risk> Management Risk> Macro Environmental Risk> Interest Rate Risk.Finally,according to the concrete case,the synthetical level of sensitivity of the risk factor is analyzed by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and the comprehensive sensitivity of the case project is obtained.The sensitivity coefficient of the project is 6.1327,which indicates that the PPP project is in the sensitive area,which indicates that the risk is large,and the private sector needs to consider the possible loss of the risk when making the decision.