Research On The Correlation Mechanism And Predictive Analysis Of My Country's Regional Economic Development And Environmental Pollution

Now,environmental pollution is an important factor restricting the development of society and economy in China.As a whole,nature environment has its own complexity and uncertainty.The development of economy is the goal pursued by human activities,but there seems to be an irreconcilable contradiction between the development of economy and nature environment.In the mutual game,it is always the most urgent problem to be solved in management of economy and environment to coordinate the relationship between them and seek the best balance point and the trend of future development.In recent years,China has begun to pay attention to and use economic means to strengthen restriction of environmental protection.Environmental pollution liability insurance,also known as "green insurance",is to resolve the environmental risks that may occur in the process of economic development through the institutional arrangement of insurance.Based on the above considerations,this paper takes pilot area of environmental pollution liability insurance Jiangsu province,Hubei province and Hunan province as the research areas and takes the parameter data of economy and environment as the research object,carrying out related research about correlation mechanism and prediction analysis of two different systems of economy and environment in region.(1)The environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)model in the study area is constructed.EKC tests are carried out for three areas and four pollutants respectively.The results show that the EKC test of industrial sulfur dioxide emissions,industrial effluent emissions and industrial solid waste production in Hunan Province is "inverted N" type,and the above pollutants keep a downward trend;while the EKC test of industrial smoke(powder)dust emissions shows that Jiangsu Province and Hubei Province are the right part of the "inverted N" type,and Hunan Province is the right part of the "N" type,and the trend of the pollutant discharge will gradually increase in the future.(2)The grey relational analysis(GRA)model in the research area is constructed.The interrelationship between different indicators of the two systems of economy and environment is researched.The results of experiment show that investment in industrial pollution control is the most important factor affecting the environmental system,which shows that the investment and policy means related to environmental pollution areindispensable.Industrial effluent discharge is the most important environmental pollution index affecting economic development.It is particularly important to control effluent discharge reasonably.(3)A grey relational analysis based BP neural network(GRA-BP)model is constructed.To predict industrial SO2 emissions in the study area,the BP neural network model based on multi-index analysis is used to predict industrial SO2 emissions in the study area.The grey relational analysis model is used to analyze the correlation between the designed BP neural networks.The results show that the correlation of the selected indexes is within a strong and very strong range.The absolute values of relative errors in the study area are 0.20%,0.16% and 0.22% respectively.This result shows that the relative errors of the model are small.