Multi-perspective Analysis And Forecast Of China's Coal Consumption Trends

Since the beginning of the industrial revolution,global coal consumption has continued to increase.In recent years,under the influence of climate policy and technological progress,this growth trend has eased,and the characteristics of regional differentiation have become more apparent.The focus of coal consumption has shifted from developed countries in Europe and the Americas to developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region.As a major economy in the Asia-Pacific region,China's coal consumption trends will have a major impact on regional and global coal consumption growth paths and climatic conditions.In recent years,under the constraints of coal control and carbon emission reduction targets,China's coal consumption level has declined,but in the new development stage,coal consumption trends still have great uncertainty,and the achievement of related coal control and carbon emission reduction goals are also constantly challenged.Therefore,considering that China has entered the late stage of industrialization and the significant differential development characteristics between China's provinces,this paper studies China's coal consumption patterns from national and regional perspectives and predicts future coal consumption trends to reduce uncertainty and promote the achievement of related goals.This paper systematically studies the history of China's coal consumption,internal driving mechanisms and future consumption trends from the perspective of countries and regions.First,the laws and mechanisms of coal consumption are explored.On the one hand,from a global perspective,through comparative analysis and breakpoint regression,there are three consecutive inverted U-shapes between China's coal consumption and economic development from 1965 to 2016,and reached inflection points in 1980,1998,and 2013 respectively.Meanwhile,the LMDI decomposition analysis of coal consumption reveals that output effects and intensity effects jointly determine the overall trend of each inverted U,and structural effects play a key role in the formation of each inverted U-shaped inflection point.On the other hand,starting from the analysis of the differences in provincial coal consumption,the club convergence test method is used to test the changes of provincial differences in coal consumption in different provinces.It is found that coal consumption in different provinces converges to high,medium and low level of coal consumption,respectively.Moreover,The LMDI decomposition analysis shows that this convergence result is mainly determined by the dependence of the provincial economy on coal,and each club contains provinces in different regions of the east,middle and west,which poses challenges to the design of coal consumption policies.Secondly,based on the above-mentioned national and regional coal consumption rules,the future coal consumption trend is predicted.The prediction results based on the periodic inverted U-shaped law indicate that coal consumption will decline at an average annual rate of 0.4%from 2017 to 2030,and it will be basically in a plateau period.There is a big gap between the consumption trend and the inverted U scenario.In order to bend the coal consumption curve downward and ensure that 2013 will become a long-term peak,further measures are needed.Besides,the multi-level forecast based on the regional coal consumption law shows that the total coal consumption shows an "S" shape trend,and it is basically in the consumption platform period between 2011 and 2015.After 2016,there is a relatively obvious slow downward trend,and from 2016 to 2025,the average annual growth rate of coal consumption of clubs one,two and three was 1.24%,-1.1%,-4.3%,respectively.This not only verifies the predicted trend of the national perspective in general,but also shows that in the short and medium term,the overall trend of coal consumption will be dominated by the provinces of club tow.The provinces in club one are still the key targets for controlling coal consumption.Additionally,in the medium term,the coal consumption levels and growth rates of the provinces still have large differences.This more detailed regional forecasting result complements the overall forecast.Finally,based on the above research results,this paper proposes corresponding systematically macro recommendations and complementary different suggestions.In general,in order to ensure that 2013 will become a long-term peak,the government should accelerate the optimization of the industrial structure and energy consumption structure,and improve coal consumption efficiency continuously through a mix of policies,so as to bend the coal consumption curve.At the same time,in the formulation of specific regional differential coal control policies,we must pay attention to the fair coordination of the relationship between economic development and resources and environment,and set emission reduction targets and control policies according to the dependence of various provinces on coal consumption,and to future consumption trends.