Study On Risk Management Of Water Conservancy Project Based On Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

The construction of water conservancy project is a key part of infrastructure construction in our country,and it is an infrastructure construction related to the national economy and people's livelihood.In the past ten years,it has been attached importance to and invested vigorously by the state,local government,private capital and so on.About 25000 water conservancy projects have been constructed every year,the scale of investment and the scale of construction have increased rapidly.Because of the characteristics of long construction cycle,large project investment,large construction scale and many influencing factors,there are inevitable risks in time limit,investment,quality,safety and so on,which need to be identified and managed in time,otherwise there may be serious consequences.After the reform and opening up,with the rapid development of economic construction,the related research in the field of engineering construction project management has made remarkable achievements,and the theory and application of risk management is also an important part of it,including the risk management research on safety,quality,time limit,economy and so on in the construction of water conservancy project.Since China's entry into WTO,with the increasing scale of water conservancy project construction and investment,the research on risk management of water conservancy project is becoming more and more comprehensive and deeper.Scholars have dabbled in all kinds of risk management methods,analysis methods and calculation software tools,and have made very obvious progress,but the application research of combining the corresponding theoretical methods with all kinds of water conservancy project cases is less.There is still a great lack of theoretical guidance in practice.Therefore,this paper selects the water conservancy project which is representative and has a high degree of risk as the research object,and it is of great practical significance to strengthen the research on the risk management of the water conservancy project construction project under the current national conditions.This paper refers to a large number of domestic and foreign literature on project risk management and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP).On the basis of analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP),combined with their advantages,the influence relation matrix is established by using 0-1 scale method to adjust and optimize the weight vector structure formed by FAHP,so as to improve its accuracy effectively.It shows that the test steps are more concise,the adjustment operation is easier,and the theoretical basis of judgment is more scientific.The establishment principle of water conservancy project risk evaluation model is established,and the related risk factors of time limit goal and quality target are analyzed and combed.The hierarchical evaluation model is established from two aspects: the ability of water conservancy subsystem and the related party of engineering construction,material and material,the management and supervision of all parties,and the natural conditions.The number scale of the relevant factors of the construction period risk and the quality risk of the HJGB water control project is collected by the expert questionnaire method.The construction period and the quality risk of the HJGB water control project in the middle reaches of the main stream in the east of Guangdong Province are evaluated and analyzed by using the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the established water conservancy project construction period and the quality risk evaluation model,and the method is proved to be feasible.