Research On The Motivation Of The Anti-"silent Spiral" Phenomenon In The Brexit Referendum

The "spiral of silence" hypothesis has been published for more than 40 years.After being proposed,its applicability has been constantly challenged by later scholars,and this theory has been continuously revised and improved in the process.So today,in the unprecedented changes in the communication environment,does the theory still apply to the study of public opinion and public opinion?In 2016,the referendum on the Brexit vote in Britain became a major event that attracted worldwide attention.Many public opinion polls before the referendum showed a trend contrary to Neumann's "spiral of silence," and the "Brexit faction" as a disadvantaged party has long been " The repatriation of the "European School" was suppressed,but in the week prior to the referendum,it leaped forward to surpass the"Left European School" at the polls and finally won the referendum.The phenomenon of "silent spiral" emerged.The author investigated the poll data released by various institutions before the referendum on June 23,2016,and borrowed scholars' research on the referendum voting.Through a multivariate model,the pollsters used the week before the referendum and the week after the referendum to assess the impact.Polls tend to reverse and ultimately result in voting.The study found that the "revenue-cost assessment" factors,the "risk perception of Brexit" and the "expression of emotions to the EU",which focus on economic issues and immigration issues,had a direct and extremely significant impact and became a reversal of polls.The three main factors;the recognition of the group and the struggle between the parties also served as a catalyst for the reversal of the polls,but the indirect effects of the first three main factors need to be influenced and do not directly affect the voting tendency.Although the "spiral spiral of silence" seems to be a pattern that is contrary to the"silent spiral," the internal logic of the two is the same.It can be said that the "silent spiral" is a "silent spiral".This kind of theory has been extended,and through the study of the British referendum on the Brexit vote,it is also possible to make up for the shortcomings of "spiral of silence" theory in order to perfect its theoretical system...