Research On The Risk Evaluation Of The Development Model Of The Elderly Service Industry In Yunnan Province

With the increasing aging of the population in Yunnan Province,the development of the health care industry in our province has become a major concern for the society.Under the background of the aging of the world's population,China's population aging has not only a large scale,an amazing speed of development,an unbalanced development of aging,an ageing population that is not rich and old,and an aging urban-rural inversion.At the same time,the aging population has begun to experience the phenomenon of “four concurrents”,namely: aging,empty nesting,disability,and low birthrate,making the aging of the population increasingly problematic.However,so far,the traditional mode of old-age care in our province has such problems as low management level,inflexible mechanisms,and lack of professionals.In order to overcome the above-mentioned old-age problems and combine with the province's situation in Yunnan Province,this paper proposes three types of new-type old-age care models based on innovation-driven strategies targeting different groups of older people,that is,the elderly with poor economic conditions as one of the target groups.Combining the two industries of pension and real estate to create an“old-age pension” pension model;taking the elderly with good physical condition and good economic conditions as one of the target groups,combining the tourism industry and the pension industry into a “tourism” Pension mode.The above two new pension models fully reflect the new concepts,new technologies,and new standards that support the development of the elderly care service industry in our province.However,the two pension models currently exist such as policy risks,social identification risks,and financing channel risks.There are many potential risks such as the professionalism of practitioners and employees.Therefore,this paper uses the prospect theory to evaluate the comprehensive risk of the two new pension models using expert scoring method.The assessment results show that the comprehensive risk assessment of the two pension models are moderate risks.Based on the above-mentioned prospect assessment results,four suggestions forpromoting the operation of the innovative pension development model in Yunnan Province are proposed: First,to give play to the guiding role of the government and to scientifically design the provision system for the provision of old-age care services;second,to strengthen the information provision for old-age care services and improve the industrial chain for the care of the elderly;It is the input and operation mode of scientific design funds;the fourth is to strengthen the training of professional personnel and consolidate the foundation of industrial operation and development.Finally,some directions and ideas for research in the future have been put forward for the development and reform of the innovation pension service industry in Yunnan Province.