Research On Risk Assessment Of Wenzhou Healthy Aging Innovation Industry Base Project

In recent years,we have stepped into an aging society at the beginning of the 20 th century due to the imbalance between the speed of economic development and the soundness of the social system in our country.As a result,our pension problem has became a very serious social contradiction and has been exposed successively.With the deepening discussion and research by the party and the government,some supportive policies have been gradually put forth for the related pension industry to solve the pension problem.In the meantime,developers have mushroomed into the pension industry,especially the more profitable pension real estate.However,the history of the development to the pension industry in our country is relatively blank,which is generally a small project such as a nursing home or an orphanage.There are few researches on the large-scale pension industry,so there are many risks in the development of this industry.Therefore,it is significant to the research on the risk assessment of healthy aging industry projects,which is a solid foundation for making actual decisions.This paper is a study on the risk of health aging innovation industry project.First of all,this paper will elaborate the background and related literature of the project.Then this paper states the concept of project risk,the characteristics of project risk management and health related content of aging industry projects.Next,this paper analyse the common technical methods of risk identification in the project,and the corresponding risk evaluation index system is established through the relevant characteristics of healthy aging industry project.After comparing various evaluation methods,this paper analyzes the advantages & disadvantages of Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and the operation principle of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation(FCE)respectively,finally combine advantages of this two method to construct the Ahp-Fuzzy model.Later,through the summary theory and the example of Wenzhou Healthy Aging Innovation Industrial Base,this paper establishes the project risk assessment system via AHP,which is divided into healthy aging industry project policy risk,healthy aging industry project economic risk,healthy aging industry project planning risk,healthy aging industry project construction risk,healthy aging Industry project marketing risk and healthy aging industry project operational risk.The six major first-level indicators are subdivided into 19 second-level indicators,which including pension industry policy risk,pension ground policy risk,urbanplanning risk,financing risk,cost risk,inflation risk,location selection risk,aging design risk,ancillary facilities risk,project orientation risk,construction quality risk,construction period risk,construction safety risk,marketing promotion risk,product price risk,marketing model risk,health aging industry project operational risk,pension service quality risk,and risk management of health aging industry project.And then this paper concludes that the project is a general risk project through calculating the evaluation weight via the FCE,and put forward corresponding measures and suggestions to all level risks.To sum up,this paper summarizes study conclusions and analyse the shortcomings of this paper.According to the risk study of Wenzhou Healthy Aging Innovative Industry Base,some theoretical and empirical foundations can be provided for the related health pension industry project risk management.