| China has become the country with the largest elderly population in the world,and the reports of the 19 th and 20 th National Congresses of the Communist Party of China have pointed out that we must actively deal with the problem of population aging.The aging of population will deeply affect the structure of agricultural industry in China from the supply and demand side.As the basic industry of national economic development,agriculture is the ballast of stable development of the whole society.At present,our country is in the critical period of transformation of economic development mode,optimization adjustment of industrial structure,transformation of economic growth power.In-depth analysis of the influence of population aging on agricultural industrial structure adjustment has important theoretical and practical significance.Population aging will have an impact on the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure from both ends of supply and demand,but existing studies mostly focus on the analysis of the impact of population aging on the supply side of agriculture,and few scholars systematically analyze the impact of population aging on the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure from both ends of supply and demand.Based on the national provincial panel data and combined with the actual research needs,this paper uses the spatial Durbin model to deeply analyze the impact of population aging on the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure from both sides of supply and demand,and draws the following conclusions.(1)The aging population is not conducive to the improvement of the advanced level of agricultural industrial structure.The specific performance is that it directly promotes the upgrading of industrial structure in the region and has a significant effect on neighboring regions,the total effect is negative,and the intensity of the influence on the demand side is greater than that on the supply side.It has a direct promotion effect on the expansion of planting industry,especially grain crop production in the region,and has a inhibitory effect on the increase of the output value ratio of fishery and animal husbandry in neighboring regions.Moreover,the ratio of planting industry and fishery and animal husbandry output value mainly depends on the supply side,while the ratio of grain economy and planting mainly depends on the supply side.(2)There is regional heterogeneity in the influence of population aging on the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure.From the perspective of demand,population aging has positive spatial spillover effect and total effect on the improvement of agricultural industrial structure,while the direct effect is only positive in western China.The direct impact on the ratio of output value of planting industry to fishery and animal husbandry is as follows: the eastern region will directly promote the increase of output value of planting industry in the region,while the central and western regions will promote the increase of output value of animal husbandry and fishery in the region.The direct effect on the grain economy and planting ratio is significantly positive in the eastern and central regions,the spatial spillover effect is positive in the eastern and western regions,negative in the central region,and the total effect is significantly positive in the eastern and western regions.From the supply side,the direct effect of rural population aging on the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure is positive only in the central region,while the spatial spillover effect is positive only in the eastern and central regions.The spatial spillover effect and the total effect on the ratio of output value of agriculture and fishery and animal husbandry are significantly negative in the eastern and central regions.The direct effect on the ratio of grain to economy and planting is basically the same as that on the demand side,while the spatial spillover effect and the total effect are significantly negative only in the central region.(3)From the perspective of demand,the increase of residents’ income has a significant positive effect on the output value ratio of farming,fishery and animal husbandry,and the ratio of grain to economy and planting,and a negative correlation between the agricultural industry’s advanced level;There is a significant positive relationship between the national average education level and the level of agricultural industry,and a significant negative relationship between the output value ratio of planting industry and fishery and animal husbandry,but there is no significant correlation between the average education level and the ratio of grain economy and planting.From the supply side,the average education level in rural areas is positively correlated with the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure and the ratio of output value of animal husbandry and fishery,and negatively correlated with the ratio of grain to economy and planting,while regional economic development has a promoting effect on the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure,the proportion of output value of fish and animal husbandry and the cultivation ratio of cash crops.The main innovations of this paper are as follows: First,the expansion of research perspective.This study systematically analyzed the effects of population aging on the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure from both ends of supply and demand,and further supplemented the relevant research on population aging and agricultural industrial structure adjustment in academia.Second,the macro measurement of agricultural industrial structure.At the same time,the changes of China’s agricultural industrial structure were measured from three dimensions: the high-grade of agricultural industrial structure,the composition of output value of agricultural primary and secondary industries and the ratio of grain to economy and planting,and the methods of measuring the changes of agricultural industrial structure were expanded from the macro perspective. |
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