Research On Domestic Purchasing Power Parity Measurement Based On CPD Method

With the acceleration of economic globalization,the economic between coutries becomes more and more important.Compared with the traditional exchange rate method,purchasing power parity method can reflect the price level difference among countries,so it can make a more reasonable comparison of the economic power among coutries.International Comparison Program(ICP)is a global economic comparions jointly participated by countris in various regions of the world.It aims to objectively evaluate and compares the economic scale and structure of various countries by measuring purchasing power parities(PPPs).In the past fifty years which ICP continuously developed,many bilateral and mutilateral comparison mtehods appeared and improved.Country Product Dummy Method(CPD)is an important mutilateral comparison method.Its main advantages are as follows: the collected price data can be used to the maximum extent and the missing data can be filled to avoid the waste of information.Based on regression,CPD method is simple,flexible and can be extended in many aspects.As the core method of ICP,CPD method is worthy of further study in theory and application.Besides,with the continuous economic improvement of China,the gap of economic development between regions is widened.The empirical analysis on the domestic level by using CPD method is not only a test of the theory of CPD method,but also a new perspective of the economic gap between regions in China.Baed on CPD method as the research object,this dissertation systematically teases out the development and theory of CPD method and improved models,and analyzes the advatages and disadvatages of CPD method and improved models,and compares the results in different types of missing data,and applies CPD method to the domestic level,to get the price level of the differences between the provinces in China.In the end,purchasing power parity(PPP),as a conversion factor,is uesd to analyze regional economic differences from different angles.The dissertation consists of six chapters.The first chapter is introduction: it elaborates the research background,significance and the research content,and reviews the research results of CPD method at home and abroad and the research results of domestic price level difference and price index,and finally explains the contributions and shortcomings of this dissertation.The second chapter is the method theory of CPD method and its improved models: it introduces the development courses and basic models of CPD method and its improved model.Chapter three and Chapter four are the key chapters of this dissertation.The third chapter is the impact of missing data on CPD method: Theoretical analysis and empirical analysis are made on the bias of results caused by missing data,and classified discussion is made on the missing data.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis of the CPD method and its improves models: the price data of 69 kinds of consumer goods in 31 provinces in China are selected,and the purchasing power parity of each province or city relative to Beijing is calculated with CPD method and improved models respectively,and so as to analyze and compare the price and economic level differences between different regions in China.The fifth chapter is the application of PPPs in domestic level: the PPPs resulting from CPD method and improved models,as the currency conversion factor and price reduction index,is applied to GDP,household consumption level,income level and poverty line,etc,to investigate the differences in the above aspects after PPP adjustment and excluding the influence of the price facter.Chapter six is the conclusion and the prospect: conclusion is a summary of the foregoing analysis,and the prospect presents several aspects for the further research about CPD method.The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follows: first,when CPD model is used to summarize and calculate PPPs and fill in missing data in the the absence of partial price gaps,the calculated results and filled fata are closely related to the overall price level in the reference area.Secondly,the CPD method and the improved models were used to conduct an empirical analysis of the differences in price levels between regions in China.Regionally speaking,the price level in the eastern region was significantly higher than that in the central and western regions.In terms of commodity categories,clothing entertainment,entertainment,education and medical care are quite different.Thirdly,CPD model without considering spatial effect may lend to biased or invalid results,so it is necessary to establish spatial CPD model.Finally,PPPs based on CPD method can adjust the nominal GDP,resident' consumption level,income level,poverty line and other aspects to eliminate the influence of price factors,and the actual difference level after adjustment is reduced to some extent.