Real Estate Tax And House Price Fluctuation: Empirical Research And Enlightenment In OECD Countries

Real estate is the shoring industry of the national economy.The stable and healthy development of real estate industry is a serious problem,which is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood.Recent years,the rapid increased housing price has become an hot social issue.At the same time,it is a hidden trouble for people's daily live and national economy.For restraining the over-speeding housing price and ensuring the heathy development of the estate industry,series of policies have been carried out,e.g.raising interest,housing purchase limit policy,and clear inventory and improve the initial proportion.It proves that those polies were not that efficient.According to absorbing the foreign experiences,more and more scholars and out government pay close attention to the property tax reform,which is expected to have the housing prices under control and make the houses to be really used to live.Three series of opinions are concluded by the scholars:the property tax would decrease the housing price,the property tax would increase the housing price and the effect of the tax to the price is not certain.Anyone opinion above is supported by the certain theory and statistics.At present,scholars' research focuses on the ways of collection,the scope of their tax rates and their impact on housing prices.And the domestic research basically takes the pilot cities Shanghai and Chongqing as the data source.Based on the property tax statistics collected from the OECD countries which have levy the tax for long,VAR model is established.Then impulse response model and VAR decomposition are used to analyze the results,which shows the effect of real estate tax on house prices is not obvious in the medium and long term,but in the short term,it can indeed cause house prices to fluctuate to a certain extent.Generally,the housing prices would be shortly decreased by the property tax.The time would weak the effect.It is the expection of the increased housing price,which plays the important role to boost the price.It has been proved that housing price cannot be restrained by simple single policy.Multi other policies should be used with the property tax policy,which should be carried out under a stable economy with graduated tax rates and perfect policies to estate the housing.What's more important,directional interest rate increase policy and housing purchase limit policy should be carried out at the same time to suppress the investment capital.Only in this way,the housing prices would be controlled and the healthy development of estate industry would be ensured.