Identification And Analysis About Poverty Entrance,Exit,and Recurrent

China's sustained growth fueled historically unprecedented poverty reduction.However,many economists pointed out that the current poverty line of China is set too low,which leads to an artificial decrease in the number of poor people.The origin of such debate comes from the setting of China's absolute poverty line based on household real consumption of food and non-food.In fact,some calculation questions,like how much or energy a person needs in daily living,how to determine the varieties of the food and its basket ratio,how to estimate the non-food consumption,are still subject to a great deal of subjectivity and ambiguity.This problem makes many researchers and policy-makers believe that the setting standard of China's poverty line is too low.In this paper,we allow poverty to be a fuzzy concept that the notion of being poor is a vague one-it is impossible for any society to draw a clear demarcation line to separate the poor from the non-poor.Instead,the poverty status of an individual is indicated by a real number between zero(clearly a non-poor)and one(clearly a poor).In order to compute poverty values for a range of poverty lines,we employ bootstrap technique to estimate 100 potential poverty ranges according to the distribution of social income.The probability of poverty status for each household is then be estimated,which is to be aggregated across the population.We further use a non-parametric approach for multiple change point analysis of multivariate data developed by Matteson and James(2014)to find the structural change point for the poverty line.Using the income data of the rural households from China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),we find our estimated poverty line based on the fuzzy poverty measurement is very close to the official poverty line with 95%significance level.It shows that the official poverty line seems scientific to some extent.But the adjustment of the official poverty line shows relati-vely slow over time due to the insignificant changes in consumer price index.In addition to setting the national poverty line,we also suggest set a poverty alert line,1.8 times of the poverty line,to detect the low-income group that is above the poverty line but easily falls into poverty status.We find that 27%of the residents who are between the poverty line and poverty alert line in the sampled period fall into poverty and this probability is much higher than the residents whose income are higher than the poverty alert line.Therefore,the current anti-poverty policy should not only help the poverty-vulnerable group but also focus on the low-income groups.We can establish the working system and try anti-poverty and poverty prevention program to benefit all low and middle-income rural residents,for reducing the volatility to the effectiveness of poverty relief program.Furthermore,basic on the data characteristics of household income survey,this paper explores the dynamic evolvement process of family's poverty status and its determinants in rural China by employing sample selection duration model.We show that the longer households stay in poor,the more difficult it is for them to escape from poverty:after lasting one year,38.42%impoverished people exit poverty,but the probability declines sharply to 4.34%when they sustain about three years,besides,people who shuttle in and out of poverty has even more volatile income,accompanying by the transfer of poverty status.Households with higher education level of labor force,more land assets per capita or lower level of aging partially improve the probability of poverty exiting.Individuals in household going out as a migrant worker can reduce the risk of moving into poverty,whereas it turn into ineffective once the household is caught in poverty.Our finding also proposes that transfer payment from government to needy families do not help to overcome poverty significantly.This paper suggests different treatment between poverty prevention and poverty relief.