Growth Dynamics And Differences Of The Five Provinces In The Northwest Under The New Normal

Under the new normal state,the traditional power to promote the rapid economic growth is attenuated,the structural contradiction between the shortage of new dynamic and the weakening of the traditional power is increasing,and the upgrading of the economic transformation is imminent.On the basis of the traditional East,middle and west region division,this paper selects economic development level,geographical position environment,resource endowment and industrial structure on the basis of two aspects of the new task of changing economy,optimizing the industrial structure and solving the old problem of expanding the regional gap.For the same northwest five provinces,not only the development level of the region is in the lowest level of the gradient system in China,but also the development of the economic belt of the Silk Road and opening to the West has provided new opportunities for the development of the region.In view of this,this paper,based on the current situation of the economic development of the five provinces and regions in Northwest China,has an important practical significance for the systematic analysis of the main factors affecting its economic growth.Along with the research thinking of theoretical analysis,empirical test,countermeasures and suggestions,the paper gradually develops.First,the research and theory of economic growth at home and abroad are combed and reviewed to lay a theoretical foundation for the study.Secondly,the actual economic data of the five provinces(regions)of the Western China are used to verify the factors affecting the overall and individual economic growth of the five provinces and regions in the Northwest.Finally,the theoretical and empirical results are made.It puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to provide decision-making basis for enhancing the comprehensive economic strength of the western region and promoting the coordinated development of the region.On the theoretical level,starting from the two sides of supply and demand,the paper first explains its basic concepts and rich connotations.Then,from the perspective of the supply side,the representative literature and views are summarized;from the demand side,the traditional three carriages are extended and reviewed.In addition,in order to better approach the research focus of this article,the articlefurther summarizes the research status of economic growth in five provinces in Northwest China.At the empirical level,first,we define the original steady state and the new normal state through data calculation and description.The results show that the economy of the five provinces(regions)in Northwest China from 2000 to 2007 can be regarded as steady state,that is,the original steady state.In 2008 and after,the growth rate of per capital output decreased from an average of about 17% to an average of about 9.39%,which led to a decline in economic growth rate and entered a new normal state,that is,the transition from the original steady state to the new steady state,so as to make a scientific definition of the background section of the article and clear the sample data interval.Then,based on the increasingly rich new supply theory,based on the supply side structural reform that is strongly advocated by the current state,according to the connotation of the broad supply,the supply side variables are selected from the five dimensions of the main body of the economic activities,the factors of production,the upgrading of the elements,the change of the structure,and the reform of the system;at the same time,it has not been ignored.The effectiveness of the "three carriages",from the actual situation in the northwest five provinces(districts),selected the final consumption expenditure,net export and other indicators,from both sides of the supply and demand to balance research.Finally,through the simulation of R software programming,the superiority of the LASSO regression method is verified,and the characteristics of the variable selection are carried out at the same time with the model fitting,and the variables of the special factors which meet the theoretical requirements and close to the regional economic development of the five provinces in Northwest China are selected as comprehensive as possible,so as to inspect its northwest five.In addition,considering the difference of economic development between provinces,this paper further constructs the panel SUR model and empirically analyses the influence of the related factors on the economic growth of each individual,and the provinces(districts)need to cultivate new economic growth dynamic force according to local conditions.The results show that,from the overall situation of the five provinces in Northwest China,in the past2008-2016 years,there are 7 variables that affect the dynamic factors of economic growth in the past 2008-2016 years: entrepreneurship,labor,material capital,technological progress,energy consumption,urbanization structure and the final consumption level of the whole society.Among them,the regression coefficient of urbanization structure is negative,and the irrational urbanization structure is not conducive to the economic growth of the five provinces in Northwest China,and the other 6 variables,such as entrepreneurial spirit and labor force,have promoted economic growth in different degrees.From all provinces and regions,the influence of supply and demand factors is different.Each province(District)must prescribe the right medicine,and cultivate and develop new economic growth points aiming at the main influencing factors,so as to achieve sustained economic growth.