A Study On The Mechanism And Prevention Of Risk Transmission Of Shadow Bank In China

With the break of 2008 American subprime mortgage crisis,shadow banks are push to cusp.Most people believe that the shadow banks add fuel to the asset bubble.Recently,Chinese shadow bank scale constantly swell which already become an important part of financial market.On the one hand,shadow banks bear the financial functions including credit,deadline and mobility shifting which alleviate social financing problems to some extent.But on the other hand,the risks hidden in shadow banks starts to expose such as trust product' cash crisis and folk financial market capital crack.Hence,this paper selected to study Chinese shadow banks' risks and precaution to provide the policies and suggestions.It could ensure that shadow banks to make full of function to supply normal financing system credit deficiency as well as decrease the negative effects to financial market.Through collecting domestic shadow banks research documents,this paper established the shadow banks risks sources,risks contagion and prevention as the main line to analyze.Firstly,on the basis of shadow banks relative theories,it defines Chinese shadow banks connotation,makes descriptive statistics analysis for each Chinese shadow bank system part's state quo and calculates Chinese shadow banks general scale.On this basis,it stresses to analyzes larger shadow banks consist parts' operation model.Next,according to shadow bank operation model analysis,it gains Chinese shadow banks risks mainly come from liquidity risks caused by term mismatch,credit crisis caused by lever transactions,moral risks caused by credit shifting and operation crisis caused by supervision circumvention.Then,it makes further analysis about Chinese shadow banks risks contagion effect mechanism.Through the researches,the author found Chinese shadow bank risks not only could simultaneously infect to commercial banks but also might to infect currency policy adjust and control system so that influence commercial banks' stability and currency policies' executory effects.Then,after qualitative analysis,the author makes infection effects experiments.It selects 2005 to 2015 shadow banks scale,commercial banks stability,currency policies adjust and control system and other relative indicator data.It also respectively establishes multielement nonlinear regression and VAR model to make experimental analysis.The analysis results show:(1)Chinese shadow banks scale and commercial stability contain the U shape threshold value relationship.When shadow bank relative scale is smaller than threshold value,shadow bank relative scale growth will be good to improve commercial banks stability.When shadow bank relative scale is larger than threshold value,shadow bank relative scale growth will reduce commercial banks stability.(2)Chinese shadow banks will weaken currency policies' effects.The enlarging scale of shadow bank,will decrease newly increased credit scale for short term and increase for the long term.Shadow banks credit creation scale will downsize real currency supply volume for the short term and increase real currency supply volume for the long term.Shadow banks enlarging will urge economic growth,causing CPI(Consumer Price Index)declining for short term and uprising for long term.Hence,on the basis of research conclusion,from the perspectives of regulating shadow bank development,reforming financial surveillance mechanism,pushing financial system reform,the paper prompts the policies and suggestions to prevent shadow banks risks comprehensively.