Empirical Analysis Of Shadow Banking System Which Is The Core Of Commercial Bank And The Stability Of Chinese Macro-finance

In 2007,the concept of shadow banking was first proposed by Paul McCulley,executive director of Pacific Investment Management Internationally,shadow banking broadly defined includes investment banking,hedging,money market funds,bond insurers,structural investment vehicles and other non-bank financial institutions.China's shadow banking,which is free from the traditional banking system without the general prudential supervision,refers to the credit intermediary system that is different from the commercial banks' traditional deposit and loan system,but can complete activities like the credit,liquidity,maturity transformation and so on via special innovative financial instruments.And from the current development of the shadow banking in China,the most representative shadow banking is the shadow banking business surrounding the commercial banks,that is,off-balance sheet business of commercial banks.In recent years,shadow banking in our country has a great influence to China's macro economy:on the one hand,shadow banking makes the transforming of traditional commercial banks' operation mode and profit model,which improve the income level and investment level;on the other hand,the shadow banking system is inevitable to bring the financial market systematic risk.So it is worth much for the steady development of China's macro-financial system to study about how to reduce the risks the shadow banking brings while it promotes economic development.Based on the study of the definition of shadow bank and the influence of macroeconomic variables at home and abroad,this dissertation introduces and analyzes the operation status of China's commercial banks' shadow banking business,and then this dissertation theoretically analyzed the influencing mechanism of shadow banking on several important macroeconomic variables.Based on that,the dissertation used the monthly data from January 2007 to June 2016 after eliminates the quarterly influence,and analyzed the relationship between the scale of the shadow banking system and the key variables of the macroeconomic based on the constructed SVAR model.Through the impulse response analysis,we can conclude that the shadow banking system scale can promote economic development,realize the optimal allocation of funds and accelerate the pace of China's interest rate marketization.But at the same time,it will inevitably bring financial risks,speed up the pace of inflation,and impact of monetary policy implementation effect.Finally,this dissertation puts forward relevant policy suggestions on the supervision of shadow banking based on the empirical research.