Analysis On The Fluctuation Of Yunnan Economic Cycle Since The Reform And Opening

This article mainly analyzes the characteristics of Yunnan's economic cycle and the factors affecting the economic cycle since the reform and opening up,and the impact of national regional development policies on the economic cycle of Yunnan.This paper first uses the “Valley-Valley” and “Middle Line” methods to divide the cycle of Yunnan's economic growth rate curve.It is determined that Yunnan's economy has experienced six cycles and is entering the seventh cycle.The comparative analysis method was used to analyze the National differences in the economic cycle characteristics.Second,from the perspective of total supply and total demand,we analyze the causes of the cyclical fluctuations in Yunnan's economy and discuss the impact on the economic cycle fluctuations.Specifically analyze the similarities and differences between the first industry,the second industry,the tertiary industry and their internal structures,consumption,investment,and net exports,and identify the factors that affect the economic cycle fluctuations in Yunnan.Through the research of this article,we have reached the following conclusion: In the sixth economic cycle,Yunnan's economic fluctuation range is larger than that of the whole country,and its volatility peak is higher than that of the country.The fluctuation valley is higher than the national average,and the average volatility is higher than the national average.Presenting a "high gentleness" development trend.Since the reform and opening up,Yunnan's three industrial development rates have been higher than the national average.The growth rate of Yunnan's primary industry is lower than that of Yunnan,and its position in Yunnan's economic development is weakening,but it is still higher than the contribution rate of the national primary industry.The growth rate of the secondary industry in Yunnan is higher than that of Yunnan,but the contribution rate is lower than that of the whole country.The growth rate of the tertiary industry in Yunnan is higher than that of Yunnan's economy,and its contribution rate is higher than that of the whole country.In terms of demand,the contribution rate of consumption in Yunnan has increased year by year and is higher than that of the country.In terms of investment,the investment-driven characteristics of Yunnan are quite prominent,and investment returns have been declining and in a state of dynamic inefficiency.In terms of import and export,Yunnan's foreign trade surplus has been slow.With the increase,the inter-provincial trade deficit is continuously expanding,and the final performance is the negative pull of net exports in Yunnan.From the empirical results of the VAR model,in the three industries of total supply,the secondary and tertiary industries are the main causes of economic fluctuations in Yunnan;among the three major components of aggregate demand,consumption and investment are the main causes of economic fluctuations in Yunnan.the reason.