| With the advantages of low cost and high efficiency of Internet finance,the P2P network lending industry has developed rapidly in the context of rising income levels,personal investment and financial willingness,and difficulty in borrowing from small and micro enterprises.The industry has been developing for 12 years.Due to the lack of supervision and industry irregularities,many platforms for self-inflation and Ponzi schemes have been created in the name of P2P online loans.The collapse of these platforms has caused the decline of residents' wealth and social instability.Many people are not optimistic about the development of this industry.At present,the P2P industry conducts compliance inspections in accordance with the document and policy requirements of the “Notice on Conducting Compliance Checks for P2P Network Lending Organizations” nationwide.It has been pointed out that in the second half of 2019,some developed regions will pilot the P2P platform for filing,and industry supervision will soon be on the right track to implement the P2P industry information intermediary positioning.In fact,as early as the end of 2017,the regulatory side put forward the idea of P2P platform filing,but because the P2P industry covers all regions of the country,the promotion of specific regulatory measures requires the cooperation of local departments,and the progress varies from place to place.In some areas,the regulatory authorities have introduced local regulatory measures in light of their own circumstances.In view of the development status and trends of the P2P industry,and the current P2P industry risk related literature mainly focuses on the research of a single platform,this paper uses the extended Cox model as the research object by crawling the data of the online loan home,using the extended Cox model,and each As the explanatory variable,the operating time of the platform is to study the registered capital,the geographical distribution of the registration,the background of the platform,whether to deposit the bank,whether to join the industry association,whether there is a third-party security model and the credit transfer business,and the seven platform characteristic explanatory variables,and Money supply,price index,exchange rate,stock index,real estate boom situation,the impact of five macroeconomic and financial environment explanatory variables on the P2P platform.Through theoretical,data and empirical analysis,it is concluded that the P2P platform has certain development trends and prospects,and it is necessary to respond to risks and early warnings.In terms of platform characteristics explanatory variables,the registered capital is not as high as possible,and more attention needs to be paid to the paid-in capital;the Internet economic status of the registered place and the competition in the P2P industry will affect the development of the P2P platform.Therefore,the P2P platform registered in the central region has high risks.On the eastern platform;joining industry associations and online banking deposits can significantly improve the survival time of the P2P platform,while the third-party security model and credit transfer business need to be further optimized to achieve the risk reduction.In terms of macroeconomic and financial variables,when the money supply during the economic boom period increases,the real estate market booms,and the appreciation of the renminbi,it is easy to generate inferior quality targets and borrowers to increase risks.The increase in investment costs caused by inflation-induced debt depreciation and stock market rise is conducive to attracting investment planners and reducing overdue risks on P2P platforms.These factors need to be paid attention to by P2P platforms. |
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