Research On Overseas Project Risk & Crisis Management From An Uncertainty Perspective

Following the irreversible trend of globalization,the level of risk of the world will stay on the high end.The overseas projects of China have experienced great development,but normally it is the contractors of these projects that assume the national risks of the host countries.The various political risks,like black swan,have caused the international economic activities to deviate from the contemplated outcome,leading to significant loss.From the perspective of system theory,uncertainty,risk,contingency and crisis are linked and interchangeable.This dissertation,from the uncertainty theory point of view,discusses about the management process and strategies the Chinese contractors adopt in the case of political risks as well as the case study in this respect.The first chapter sets forth the background,significance,methods,contents and thoughts of the research,with the three innovative points of the dissertation elaborated at the end.The second chapter,with the summary of the literatures and theories,addresses the current research outcome related to uncertainty,risk,crisis and relevant management thereof and raises the issue of overseas project crisis management under three different models.The third chapter discusses about the concepts of uncertainty,risk and crisis management,management process,evaluation techniques and management strategies,and proposes three systems,four strategies,seven processes and several commonly used evaluation techniques.The fourth chapter analyzes the development of Chinese overseas projects together with the political risks,crisis and management strategies faced by such project,elaborates on the political risk insurance,guarantee risk and force majeure etc.,and proposes the management study matrix of the overseas projects in light of the bounded rationality,dynamic and timeliness.The fifth chapter,with the case study of the risk and crisis management following the military coup taking place during the implementation of the Bamako–Sénou International Airport terminal building project which were experienced by the author of this dissertation in person,discusses about the application and summary of the crisis management strategies under the contractor-employer model,project-company model and stakeholders-crisis model,makes summary and analysis with part of the management models and tools addressed in the third and fourth chapters,and then elaborates on the management outcomes.The sixth chapter sums up the dissertation and gives a vision of the future study.In this chapter,the author summarizes the research regarding how to carry out risk and crisis management from the perspective of uncertainty,sums up and elevates the identification of risk and crisis,management process and evaluation techniques addressed in this dissertation,hoping the research can provide certain value of reference for the projects of a similar nature in the construction industry.At the end,the author pinpoints the deficiency in the research outcome of the dissertation.