| Transportation is the basis for the development of the national economy and the basic condition for social development.Industrial structure dominates in overall national economy and interconnects with transportation.And its alteration will trigger off changes in quality,kind an structure of products,affecting the demand of transportation.Meanwhile,transportation is growing to add the output value of tertiary industry,optimize industrial structure,develop onward industrial transportation construction and equipment manufacturing.Hence,it's exceedingly meaningful to recognize the internal relationship between industrial structure and transportation demand by analyzing the effects imposed by the former to the later.Firstly,we should sort out relevant arguments of transportation,home conveyance,transportation economy belt theory from the western economics masterpieces starting in the era of Adam Smith.Based of this,major correlation ranging from transportation,economic growth to industrial structure should be further summarized.And then,commenting above researches home and abroad to seek the focal point of this study.Furthermore,we can analyze the relevance of the unity and internal structure between industrial structure and transportation by calculating direct and complete consumption ratio connecting every industrial department with transportation by input and output sheet of Guangdong province in 2002,2007 and 2012.After checking up the stability and harmony on time series sample data ranging from 1987 to 2016,it can be estimated that freight demand quotation under different transportation methods imposed by industrial structure in Guangdong province.And then,analyze variable causality in a method of Grainger.On the basis of above researches,major conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1)The overall correlation analysis with transportation indicates that there are great differences in the overall demand for transportation between different years of industrial structure,and they show their own characteristics of change.The demand for transport in the primary industry is generally low and gradually weakens;the indirect demand for transport by the secondary industry is greater;the demand for transport by the tertiary industry is gradually increasing.(2)The correlation analysis with the internal structure of transportation shows that the technical and economic characteristics of the various transportation modes show different requirements.Road transport in Guangdong Province occupies an important market position,and its demand for industrial sectors is relatively large;rail transport is suitable for large-and medium-distance bulk cargo transport,and manufacturing and mining industries have a greater demand;water transport is an important part of international trade.The mode of transportation and traffic is large.The demand pattern is similar to that of the railway and is easily affected by the international market.The air transportation costs are high and the transportation of goods is limited.It is suitable for “unusual transportation” with a low proportion of transportation;pipeline transportation is only related to oil and natural gas.Relevant,strong specificity,greater limitations,less affected by other modes of transport.The demand of various industrial sectors for the internal structure of transportation shows the characteristics of “the increase of railway transportation,the increase of road transportation,the overall enhancement of road transportation,the continuous shrinkage of water transportation,the priority of air transportation,and the insignificance of pipeline transportation”.(3)The time series regression analysis shows that the relationship between the industrial structure of Guangdong Province and road freight is even closer,and railways,waterways,and civil aviation transportation are not only affected by the industrial structure within the province.Due to the obvious outward-oriented economic characteristics of Guangdong Province,they are also affected by other provinces and even trade countries' development.From 1987 to 2016,the total economic output of Guangdong Province was the main factor affecting the growth of road freight,and the data also showed that the transformation and upgrade of the industrial structure led to an increase in the proportion of technology-intensive and knowledge-intensive products.These products have light weight,deep processing,and high added value characteristics of added value which determined that the transportation industry will have to turn to safer and faster high-quality services.Guangdong Province will continue to improve the level of urbanization construction,and the construction industry's promotion of road freight transport is still very significant.In addition,international trade and social consumption have a clear driving effect on the total volume of transportation.With the increase in fixed investment in the tertiary industry in the province,physical products have decreased and the intensity of road transport has been reduced.Under the premise of constant total transport demand and structure,the optimization of the transport network will help to reduce transport turnover.(4)Granger causality test shows that the total GDP,agriculture,industry,construction,other service industries,and the total fixed investment of the whole society are the reasons for the turnover of road freight,but the turnover of road freight is not the reason why GDP,agriculture,industry,construction,other service industries,the total amount of fixed investment in the society,that worked.It can be considered that Guangdong's industrial structure is the Granger's cause of the demand for road freight.Finally,according to the conclusions,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward,pointing out to adapt to the future industrial structure the transportation industry in Guangdong Province is necessary to make reasonable planning work in advance;and to optimize the transportation structure and give play to their respective competitive advantages.The application of the transportation system continuously improves the level of intelligence.At the end of the article,the lack of research on the article and the direction of future efforts are presented. |
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