| In the 13 th Five-Year Plan,the objectives and tasks for the construction of modern comprehensive transportation system were specified,and the forecast of comprehensive transportation demand is the pioneering work with regard to the planning and construction of comprehensive transportation system.The aim of this thesis is to study regional comprehensive transportation.This thesis conducts the forecast study of total transportation demand and transportation structure,builds the total transportation demand forecast model based on multicollinearity and ridge regression method,and provides forecasting method of transportation structure based on the means of transportation chosen by travelers.In the meantime,this paper forecasts the demand of Shandong comprehensive transportation and takes it as an example to testify the feasibility of the method and the credibility of the model.This thesis has certain theoretical significance and application value in enriching the theory of regional comprehensive transportation demand forecast and guiding the construction of comprehensive transportation infrastructure.The main task of this thesis is to summarize the method of transportation demand forecast and the development process of forecast model,and further introduce the developmental tendency of comprehensive transportation.In terms of the two aspects of the forecast of transportation demand,which include the forecast of total transportation demand and transportation structure,this thesis analyzes the existing forecast methods as well as their applicability and the advantages and disadvantages of the model.This thesis mainly introduces the status quo of Shandong comprehensive transportation,analyses the historical statistical data of Shandong traffic and transportation,and amends the historical data of three kinds of statistical caliber.The Forecast of Regional Comprehensive Transportation Demand.In this part,the total demands of passenger volume and freight volume are forecasted separately.Firstly,selecting the influence factors of the total demand forecast;secondly,employing correlation analysis and multicollinearity analysis;thirdly,constructing the total transportation demand forecast model based on multicollinearity and ridge regression method,and finally,carrying out confidence testing of the model.The Forecast of Regional Comprehensive Transportation Structure.In this part,the structures of passenger traffic and freight transportation are forecasted separately.Firstly,determining the service element of transportation mode and then calculating the weight of every service element.Secondly,building evaluation set of the service element and evaluating the service element by the traveler satisfaction questionnaire.Thirdly,building an evaluation matrix based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and conforming utility function of transportation mode according to the weight of service element and score column.Finally,calculating the share ratio of Shandong transportation structure on account of polybasic Logit model,forecasting data according to Shandong transportation total demand and calculating the shares of transportation mode. |
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