The Compilation Of Fresh Cut Flower Price Index And Its Application In The Flower Industry

Because of the gradual maturity of the domestic agricultural auction model and the need for transformation and upgrading of the flower industry,constructing a whole fresh cut flowers price index based on the DouNan Flowers Auction Market is very meaningful for measuring price level,ensuring market stability and relevant enterprise to manage and decide.And the price index can play the role of mind vane at the fresh cut flowers market in YunNan,even throughout the country,and make the market avoid radical change.These have a driving significance to the transformation and upgrading in flower industry and the development of a multi-level,multi-field flower trading market.Based on the data of 2015.12.24~2016.12.24 of B Flowers Auction Center in Kunming,this paper makes a complete research to the construction of fresh cut flowers price index through the data acquisition,the choice of composition varieties,the determination of computational formula and any other aspects,and then this paper applys the index to analyze the fluctuation features and correlation,the calender effect,and the short-term dynamic prediction.The results of the application of the index have a important significance for all the parties at the auction,flower planters,and the wholesalers to adjust planting and purchasing plans timely and avoid market risks reasonably.It stabilizes the sustainable and healthy development of flower industry.The results shows :(1)In a whole year,The index level from late spring to early autumn of the year is totally lower and gently,and the index level from late autumn to early spring of the next year is totally high and volatile;(2)The index fluctuation is influenced manil by its past fluctuation,and the index has the feature of volatility clustering.Exogenous shocks and its past fluctuation influencce its latter fluctuation briefly,and the influence don't have a leverage effect;(3)On the market,the current supply quantity and the auction rate to fail have a nagative effect to the current index.And the supply quantity is the Granger cause of the index from lag 1 to lag 4,the auction rate to fail is the Granger cause of the index from lag 1 to lag 8;(4)Indeed,the flower auction market has relevant Week Effects: positive Tuesday Effect,nagative Friday Effect;Solar Term Effects: positive Lixia Effect,nagative Liqiu Effect;Month Effect: negative April Effect;(5)The index prediction model has a good static forecast effect,the article applys the prediction model to estimate the index dynamically from 2017.2.1 to 2017.2.7,the result is 81.90%?83.22%?77.87%?78.79%?80.14%?81.39%?88.63% respectively,the whole level is low,but presents a up-trend.