Research On Trade Potential Between China And Other Countries Within One Belt And One Road

At present,under the background of the rise of protectionism in the west,the"one belt and one way"initiative has highlighted its important significance.China is signing a cooperation document with more and more countries to build a"one belt and one way"cooperation document.As a brand new important strategic opening policy and economic cooperation concept,the trade potential of China and its countries along the border and the factors that affect the growth of trade volume are worth studying.The new trend has a holistic and forward-looking understanding.At the same time,it can more accurately and effectively guide the investment and utilization of capital,talent,technology and other resources,improve the trade efficiency of bilateral countries,and stimulate the trade potential of countries along the lineThe article selects the trade volume and other relevant data of 71 countries included in China's six regions along the "Belt and Road" from 2008 to 2017,and takes it as the research object.The trade status of the countries along the "Belt and Road" is Starting point,comprehensive analysis of the current trade situation between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" in 2012?2017;and establishing a stochastic frontal gravitation model and a trade inefficiency model to measure the trade efficiency and potential of China and the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative Factors affecting trade efficiency,further analysis of the predicted trade potential and trade efficiency,and the influencing factors of trade potential,trade efficiency and trade efficiency of China along the "Belt and Road" countries.The article finds that the total import and export volume of China and the" one belt and one way"countries in 2017 reversed 2 consecutive years of negative growth,reaching 1 trillion and 438 billion 644 million US dollars,an increase of 13.96%compared with 2016.China's trade efficiency of the countries along the belt and road has been increasing steadily,but there is still a biggap between the actual trade volume and the trade potential.The average trade efficiency of the countries along the route is 0.2981,indicating that China's trade in the areas along the "one belt and one way" area still has much room for improvement.From the factors affecting trade potential,the total amount of GDP in the countries along the border and China has a significant role in promoting trade between China and the countries along the border.China's per capita GDP has a negative effect on trade potential,and the GDP per capita will promote trade.The increase in potential will impede trade between the two countries;from the point of view of the factors affecting the inefficiency of trade,the increase of tariff level will inhibit the growth of bilateral trade volume,the inconvenience of transportation,the degree of trade liberalization and the degree of monetary liberalization of the countries along the belt and road are the resistance factors of bilateral trade,and the establishment of free trade zones will help reduce trade.Easy to resist and improve trade efficiency.Based on the above conclusions,the article proposes corresponding policy recommendations:to cooperate with the countries along the "Belt and Road" to build a free trade zone;continue to promote infrastructure construction,improve transportation facilitation;accelerate the internationalization of the RMB and expand the area of RMB radiation.