Analysis On Trade Potential Between China And Other Countries Within One Belt One Road

In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis,trade protectionism had a more deep effect on global trade,world trade slowed more than expected and the volume of world trade growth slowed.Global Trade Alert,the supervision organizations of protectionism in global trade,released the report that the volume of global trade in goods has been no longer growing since January 2015.Meanwhile,China's foreign trade continued to slow down,the force of fueling economic growth is insufficient,and China's economy may be even in danger of recession,therefore China propose the initiative of "One Belt One Road" to expand and deepen trade cooperation to the West.At present,domestic research on the trade potential of One Belt One Road just focused on descriptive analysis and trade gravity model which could explore the factors that may have an impact on trade flow between China and other countries along "One Belt One Road".And domestic research did not give a further comparison and analysis of trade potential and efficiency of the countries.Therefore,using trade gravity model improved by stochastic frontier to explore the potential and efficiency of the countries is particularly important.Based on the summary background and significance of the strategy implementation,and the related trade data of China and other countries along "One Belt One Road",this paper makes a model of trade data of China and other 64 countries along the routine 2005-2015 by random frontier approach.This paper mainly used time-varying random frontier model measure to analysis trade potential between and other countries along "One Belt One Road".This article includes four chapters.Chapter ? is the introduction.Firstly,this chapter describes the background and the significance of this research,and gives a further analysis on the meaning of the initiatives well as the importance of potential analysis on China's trade with the other countries along "One Belt One Road" combined with the time,history,and China's economy.Secondly,this paper summaries related literature respectively from "One Belt One Road" strategy itself and trade potential,proposes method used in this paper and determines important effect factors may affect trade potential of China and other countries along the route.Finally,this paper explains the research methods and ideas.Chapter ? is theoretical basis and model.This chapter describes stochastic frontier model of measuring methods and theories and finally determines to use Battese Coelli(1988)proposed time-invariant stochastic frontier model and Battese Coelli(1992)proposed the stochastic frontier model,and describes the methods and formulas in empirical analysis.Chapter ? is the empirical analysis of China and other countries along "One Belt One Road".This chapter mainly uses stochastic frontier trade gravity model to analysis the trade potential between China and the other countries along "One Belt One Road".First of all,it gives a description analysis of effect factors which may affect the trade potential between China and other countries along the route;moreover,it explains and sets random frontier trade gravity model applied in this section and explained data source;at last,it analyses trade efficiency of China and other countries along the route,while it analyzes trade efficiency of changes respectively from static and dynamic,and analyzes the factors which may affect trade non-efficiency according to estimated results as well.Chapter ? is conclusions and policy recommendations.This chapter will summary main content and conclusion of research,gives targeted proposed recommends of the trade potential from economic corridor of angle based on the empirical analysis results of last chapter and currently investment activities of other countries along "One Belt One Road".This paper attempts to analyze the trade potential between China and the other countries along "One Belt One Road "from the point of trade efficiency,and uses stochastic frontier approach further to analyze the causes of trade efficiency.However,due to the access to data exists on the block,the editor has some limitations in background knowledge,and there are some shortcomings on the representation of indicators and trade system integration of many disciplines.We can use the breakdown data and multidisciplinary cooperation to further deepen the study after the time.