An Empirical Study Of Trade Potential And Determinants Between China And "The Belt And Road" Countries

China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" have a long history of economic and trade.Since President Xi Jinping proposed the"Belt and Road" initiative in September 2013,he has received positive responses from countries along the route,which has greatly improved the economic and trade relations between China and the countries along the"Belt and Road" .Most of the countries along the"Belt and Road" are emerging economies and developing countries.These countries are important trading partners of China and are generally in the period of economic development.The prospect of mutually beneficial cooperation is broad,and there is still huge room for trade development.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the trade potential and influencing factors between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" to promote the economic and trade development between China and the countries along the line.This paper first systematically analyzes the current trade situation between China and the countries along the"Belt and Road" .The study believes that the trade between China and the countries along the"Belt and Road" has shown an upward trend in overall scale.The Asian Oceania region is the largest importer and exporter of China.In the region,the types of import and export goods in countries along the"Belt and Road" are very concentrated.It also has problems such as insufficient trade with most countries along the route,unreasonable trade structure,and uneven trade development.Secondly,this paper further applies the stochastic frontier trade gravity model to empirically analyze the trade potential between China and the countries along the Belt and Road.The results show that there is still a huge space for trade expansion between China and the countries along the"Belt and Road" .The two countries with the highest import trade potential between China and the countries along the route are South Korea and Russia.The two countries with the largest trade expansion are South Korea and India;the two countries with the greatest export trade potential are India and South Korea,and the countries with the largest trade expansion space remain.It is India and South Korea.Thirdly,from the qualitative and quantitative perspectives,it analyzes the factors affecting the trade potential between China and the countries along the"Belt and Road" .It is concluded that the governments along the line are not efficient,the government supervision is not in place,the construction of the free trade zone is lagging,and the customs efficiency is not high.Factors such as the backwardness of infrastructure construction affect the realization of China's trade potential along the"Belt and Road" countries.On the basis of the above research,the paper finally proposes countermeasures to promote the trade development between China and the countries along the"Belt and Road" .We should actively promote the construction of free trade zones with countries along the"Belt and Road" ,improve trade growth patterns,optimize trade structure,improve China's infrastructure along the"Belt and Road" countries,and promote the culture of China and countries along the Belt and Road.Focusing on improving the trade potential of countries along the"Belt and Road" with a focus on countries with low trade efficiency and large trade scale.