An Empirical Study Of Trade Potential And Determinants Between China And "the Belt And Road" Countries

A stragetic concept of “the Belt and Road”(“B&R”),which means “the Silk Road Economic Belt” and “the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road”,was proposed by Xi Jinping in 2013.Winthin the overall context of the “B&R”,how to play national advantages,to elimate factors which hider the bilteral trade,to fully excavate trade potential between China and countries or regions from “B&R” and to strengthen trade with these countries or regions become the focus of the development of international trade in China.Based on datas of 77 countries from the “B&R”,this paper mainly studies the development,trade potential and influence factors between China and these countries.First of all,we analyzed the change in the position in China's foreign trade of these countries from the “B&R”,regional structure,trade commodity structure and the change of trade balance.Through the statistical analysis,we found that countries or regions along the “B&R” become important import and export market of China.Among all the commodities,chemical products,plastic and rubber and transportation equipment and other products have a great potential for trading in the future.Meanwhile,due to the resources endowment,the composition of trade between China and the countries or regions differs.And then applying the stochastic frontier approach to the traditional gravity model,we established the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model,in order to study natural factors influencing the trade between China and countries or regions along the “B&R” and trade potentiality.Finally,on the basis One-Step Estimation,we discussed exogenous determinants of the trade efficiency.The empirical study shows that the per capita GDP,population and distance between the two countries are the important factors that affect trade between China and countries or regions along the “B&R”.When the common border dispute is managed well,having a common boundary between the two countries would promote trade.Exogenous determinants like Free Trade Agreement,logistics performance,customs clearance efficiency,economic freedom and liner shipping connectivity index,etc.affect the trade between China and countries or regions along the “B&R”,leading to lower trade efficiency and huge trade potential between China and “B&R” countries.In order to further improve the trade efficiency,China should strengthen trade and improve infrastructure construction,properly handle the country border disputes,improve the level of trade facilitation and take the corresponding trade strategy according to different regions,etc.