Research On The Impact Of Housing Price On Industrial Structure Upgrading

In recent years,China’s economy has developed rapidly,especially under the new normal of the economy.The state has vigorously improved supply-side reforms,and the trend of industrial structure upgrading has become more apparent.At the same time,the rising of house prices has led to the continuous increase of production factor costs and labor cost of living and the change of regional relative factor costs,which have affected the development of regional industrial structure.For example,"vacating cage to change bird",industrial transfer and industrial belt and large-channel development in the northeast region.Therefore,this kind of industrial structural change accompanying the fluctuation of house prices is to guide the industrial upgrading or hinder the industrial innovation and development.It is necessary to systematically explore the internal mechanism in combination with economic progress,labor mobility and factor cost changes.Based on the three dimensions of theory,time and space,based on real estate theory and industrial structure theory,this paper conducts empirical research based on the housing price and industrial structure upgrade data of 285 cities and above in 2007-2016:First,adopt XTGLS the model studies the time effect of housing price fluctuation on industrial structure upgrading,and finds that house price fluctuation has a time effect on industrial structure upgrading.Then,using SDM to study the spatial effect of housing price fluctuation on industrial structure upgrading,it is found that housing price fluctuation There are local and spillover effects on the impact of industrial restructuring.The details are as follows:Chapter 1 is the introduction.This chapter mainly summarizes the research background,research significance,research ideas and research methods,as well as the innovation of this paper.Chapter 2 is the theoretical basis and literature review.This chapter systematically summarizes the theory of real estate and the theory of industrial structure.At the same time,it sorts out and analyzes the research status of related literature at home and abroad,and reviews related researches,which leads to the research content and direction of this paper.Chapter 3 is the theoretical analysis and the research hypothesis.This chapter analyzes the mechanism of the impact of housing price fluctuation on industrial structure upgrading based on the time and space dimensions.First,housing price fluctuations have an effect on industrial structure upgrading through factors such as investment,labor,consumption,and infrastructure.Then,housing price fluctuations have an impact on industrial structure upgrading through factors such as mechanized transfer,labor mobility,and relative cost changes.Finally,the theory of integration The analysis presents research hypotheses.Chapter 4 is the study of the time effect of housing price on the upgrading of industrial structure.This chapter selects the advanced and rationalized industrial structure as a dependent variable,taking the residential price as an explanatory variable,PGDP,fiscal freedom,fixed asset investment,financial support as a control variable,the XTGLS model is employed for empirical analysis.The study found that the influence factors of housing price fluctuations on the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure in the short term were 4.7%and 9.2%,respectively,and the long-term results were also significantly positive.Among them,the consequences of large and medium-sized cities are significant,and the rationalization of small cities is not significant.Chapter 5 is the spatial effect of housing price on the upgrading of industrial structure.Based on the determination of the space adjacency spatial weight matrix,the spatial weight of geographic distance and the economic distance spatial weight matrix,the paper uses the SDM for empirical analysis.The study found that in the whole sample,the local effect of housing price fluctuation on the upgrading of industrial structure is positive,and the spillover effect of advantageously is-0.1806,and the spillover effect of rationalization is not significant;in the sub-sample test,the impact of housing prices on industrial structure upgrading The results were significant in the eastern and western regions,and the results in the central region were not significant.Chapter 6 is the research conclusions and policy recommendations.This chapter is based on the previous theoretical analysis and empirical research conclusions,and provides recommendations.First,rationally regulate housing prices,and "take different strategy for different city’s status qua,housing residence instead of vicious speculation",appropriately relax the property market regulation of large and medium-sized cities,stabilize housing prices in small cities,and guide the upgrading of industrial structure;Second,pay attention to factor costs,and High-end talents are included in the talent plan and subsidized.The eastern and western regions should pay attention to preventing the negative spillover effect of house prices,strive to enhance the independent innovation of local industries,do a good job of "subtraction",and give certain financial support to enterprises that meet the development direction of local industries.To build "blue-collar apartments" for enterprise employees;Final,make rational use of land finance,actively improve infrastructure and people’s livelihood projects,adhere to "market-driven,government guidance",and increase support for industrial support policies and emerging industrial agglomeration.