Study On The Spatial Pattern Of Real Estate Economic Development Level And The Spillover Effect Between Cities In Shandong Province

In recent years,the real estate market has developed rapidly.In some degree,it has become the "wind vane" and "barometer" of China's national economy.The realty industry is an important part of the entire national economic industrial system,but it is not a simple partial and overall relationship,but a closely related correlation.The situation of real estate economic development in different regions varies according to production,geographical location,cultural heritage,etc.Although in the long run,the real estate economy of each city in a certain region has basically the same trend of change in response to changes in overall economic fluctuations,it may reflect a certain sequential relationship in time.This kind of sequential relationship is the overflow of real estate economic fluctuations.after reading thousands of related literatures,it is not difficult to find that the relevant literature on the impact of real estate economy on the economic growth of Shandong Province is basically absent,and it is still in a blank stage.However,in Shandong Province,a province with high GDP in the forefront of whole country,the contribution of the real estate economy to the overall economic development should not be underestimated.This paper studies the development of real estate economy in Shandong Province from two aspects:Firstly,we take 17 cities in Shandong Province as the research object,and construct the evaluation index system of real estate economic development level.Then we use principal component analysis and cluster analysis method to explore the spatial distribution characteristics of real estate economic development situation in 17 cities of Shandong Province from 2012 to 2016 and draw a spatial distribution map of the real estate economic development situation in Shandong Province,based on which to conduct follow-up analysis.Secondly,an empirical analysis of the leading or lagging relationship of commodity housing price fluctuations between the two metropolitan areas of Shandong Province—Jinan Metropolitan Area and Qingdao Metropolitan Circle.After selecting the monthly data of the average price of commercial housing sales in each city from 2015 to 2018,we construct the VEC model and explore the regularity of the interaction between the average sales price of commercial housing between cities,the certain degree of mutual influence between them and the possible reasons for the empirical results of the various metropolitan areas through unit root test,cointegration analysis,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis.The unique characteristics of the real estate market between different cities and their spillover effects on surrounding cities are increasingly attracting more and more attention of buyers and relevant government departments.Therefore,it is very necessary to study the division of different development levels of the real estate economy and the mutual influence between them.Through the research of this paper,we hope that we can get a qualitative and quantitative description of the spatial distribution of real estate economic development situation and the interaction around cities in Shandong Province,in order to obtain relevant conclusions that can promote the coordinated and healthy development of real estate economy and national economic growth in Shandong Province.