A Study On The Trade Effect Of China's Direct Investment In Indochina Peninsula Countries

The countries of the Indo-China Peninsula include Thailand,Laos,Myanmar,Cambodia and Vietnam.According to World Bank data,the region's average GDP growth rate in 2017 reached 6.2%,and the overall development prospects are optimistic.For China,the Indo-China Peninsula is an important economic and trade partner.It is not only a region where China's foreign direct investment has grown rapidly,but also an important destination for China to transfer its production capacity to the periphery.In fact,China has always been the most important trading partner of the Indo-China Peninsula.It has become the largest importer of Myanmar,Vietnam,Thailand and Cambodia and the second largest importer of Laos.At the same time,these countries also export to China.Different degrees of growth.In addition,China is also an important source of investment in the Indo-China Peninsula.China's direct investment in the Indo-China Peninsula in 2003-2017 accounted for 6.9% of the total direct investment in the region.Studying the trade effect of China's direct investment in the Indo-China Peninsula is an important part of studying bilateral economic and trade relations.It can not only provide evidence of the role of direct investment in bilateral cooperation from the perspective of sub-regional cooperation,but also help improve the quality of economic and trade cooperation between China and neighboring countries.Provide reference suggestions.This paper focuses on the trade effect of China's investment in the Indo-China Peninsula.It uses literature analysis,historical analysis,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to analyze the relationship between direct investment and bilateral trade.The main research contents are as follows:First of all,it analyzes and evaluates the trade effects of direct investment at home and abroad,as well as the relevant literature on economic and trade cooperation between China and the Central South Peninsula.Secondly,this paper theoretically analyzes the trade complementation effect offoreign direct investment,trade substitution effect,trade uncertainty effect and the method of studying the factors affecting international trade.Then,using the measurement method to empirically test the trade effect of China's direct investment in the sub-region of the Indo-China region and the trade effect on direct investment of countries in the sub-region,and finally conclude that: at the regional level,China's direct investment in the Indo-China Peninsula There is a complementary relationship with bilateral trade;at the national level,China ' s direct investment in Laos and Myanmar is both import-creating and export-creating.Direct investment in Cambodia and Vietnam is export-creating,and the impact on Thailand is Not obvious.The specific situation is: using time series data as a sample empirical analysis,it is found that China's direct investment in the Indo-China Peninsula,market openness,and per capita GDP have significantly promoted China's imports and exports to the Indo-China Peninsula,and invested.The long-term promotion effect is higher than the short-term promotion effect;the panel data is selected as a sample empirical analysis,and it is found that the direct foreign investment,market opening degree,and per capita GDP have a strong country difference in the impact of import scale and export scale,among which The first in the import trade effect is Laos,and the number one export trade effect is Vietnam.Finally,in order to better promote China's stable development of direct investment in the Indo-China Peninsula and give full play to the role of direct investment in improving economic development and trade imbalances,this paper also puts forward appropriate policy recommendations.