China's Export Trade Effect Of OFDI In Countries Along "The Belt And Road"

Under the initiative of "The Belt and Road" proposed in 2013,economic and trade relation between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road" are more closely,and the scales of investment and trade are expanding.On the first forum of"The Belt and Road" in 2017,general secretary Xi Jinping announced that the focus of investment and trade cooperation in China is transferring to these countries along"The Belt and Road",and China will continue to increase investment and trade in these countries.Investment and export trade are two main channels for China to implement the "going out" strategy.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between investment and trade and achieve a balanced development of these two channels.Therefore,this paper combines the export trade effect of OFDI with "The Belt and Road" strategy to study China's export trade effect of OFDI in these countries along the route.In addition,the institution of host countries has become crucial factors that affect overseas trade and investment,and also become important economic indicators studied by scholars at home and abroad.Therefore,this paper introduces the host country's institutional factor,aiming to analyze the moderating effect of the host country's institutional environment in the process of export trade effect of OFDIThis paper includes five parts:The first chapter is introduction,which mainly outlines the background and significance and point out the innovation and deficiencies of this study.The second chapter is literature review.The author summarizes the theories of OFDI's trade effect and the mechanism of regulating variables,as well as the relevant literature on trade effect of OFDI and institutional factors,in order to provide sufficient theories for supporting this paper.The third chapter analyzes present situation and development trend of China's OFDI and export trade in these countries along "The Belt and Road".It shows that China's investment and trade volume with these countries are increasing rapidly,but there are significant differences of scale and structure in different areas along the route.The forth chapter is empirical research and the author selects the data of China's investment and export trade in 35 countries along "The Belt and Road" from 2003 to 2016.Basing on unit-root test,co-integration test,multi-collinearity test and endogenous test to ensure the feasibility of the model by STATA,the author uses panel data to study the export trade effect of China's OFDI in countries along "The Belt and Road".his paper adds the host countries' institutional environment as the innovation point,and then establishes the interaction between OFDI and institutional factor to study how the host country's institutional environment moderate the export trade effect of OFDI in these countries along the route.The fifth chapter is the conclusion analysis and suggestions offering,the paper puts forward the feasible suggestions for the balanced development of investment and export trade from the government,enterprises and other levels basing on the analysis of the empirical results.The results show that whether introducing control variables,whether introducing host countries'system factors or the interaction between OFDI and institutional factors,China's OFDI to countries along "The Belt and Road" has significantly promoted China's exports to these countries.Secondly,whether the overall institutional index of the host country or the six sub-indicators:Political Stability and Absence of Violence,Government Effectiveness,Regulatory Quality,Rule of Law,control of corruption,Voice and Accountability are positively affecting China's exports to these countries,it shows that China is more inclined to cooperate with countries with good institutional environment along "The Belt and Road".However,the coefficient of interaction between these indicators with OFDI is negative,indicating that the institution of countries along "The Belt and Road" weakens the export promotion effect of OFDI in these countries to a certain extent.That is to say,the institutional environment of the countries along the route plays a negative moderating effect on the export trade effect of China s OFDI.