The Spillover Effect Of Non-tariff Measures On China's Agricultural Exports

Since the global financial crisis in 2008,the counter globalization appeared in some developed countries such as European countries and the United States,and the international economic and trade pattern has been turbulent.The new US President Trump issued a series of trade protectionist policies after he came to power in 2016,which pushed the momentum of counter economic globalization to a new round of climax.In recent years,the allegations of non-tariff measures encountered in China's agricultural exports have also shown an upward trend.Therefore,exploring the export structure of China's agricultural products,the major export barriers to China's agricultural exports and how to prevent and reduce the losses caused by export barriers have important practical significance for the healthy development of China's agricultural industry.The research content of this paper is arranged as follows:First,proceed from theoretical research.This paper constructs a theoretical model of the impact of non-tariff measures on trade and analyzes its transmission mechanism.Then an effect prediction model was constructed for the product spillover effect of non-tariff measures.The prediction results show that non-tariff measures will have a product spillover effect on the export of a country's non-accused products,which will have a positive effect on the export value and export quantity of non-accused products,and a negative effect on export prices.Second,this paper describes and analyzes the status,structure and the non-tariff measures of China's agricultural exports to 17 countries that have implemented non-tariff measures to China in 2002-2014.Research shows that China's exports of agricultural products to 17 countries are increasing recent year,and the exports of agricultural products from the horticultural industry,aquaculture and animal husbandry are the mainstay.China's agricultural exports are mainly subject to technical measures(sanitary and phytosanitary measures,technical barriers to trade,pre-shipment inspections and other formalities),and there are a large number of allegations of agricultural products from horticultural industry,aquaculture and animal husbandry.Finally,this paper combines the CEPII BACI database and the UNCTAD TRAINS database data to conduct an empirical analysis of the product spillover effects of non-tariff measures on the export of Chinese agricultural products to 17 countries in 2002-2014 from the macro-level industry segment.And the results showed: the non-tariff measures have significantly caused product spillovers to China's agricultural exports within industry;the product spillovers did not occur excessively across industries,but only in the horticultural industry;the product spillovers have a significant difference in the industry when importing countries with different import scales or nature of measures are different.At the end of this thesis,the author proposes relevant inspiration based on the above research results.