Analysis Of Housing Accumulation Fund Policy's Regulation Effects On Housing Price

With the continuous development of the national economy,the real estate market is booming in recent years.In the context of rapidly rising house prices,it has become more difficult for employees to purchase their house,and housing problems are getting worse.As a housing security system,the housing accumulation fund system not only provides a policy financing channel for solving the housing problems of the employees' families,but also plays a vital role in the regulation of house prices.Taking Fuzhou city as the research object,this paper has a research on the influence of housing accumulation fund policy on the real estate market and its adjustment effects on house price based on theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.Starting from the theory.this paper first introduces the latest research achievements on the accumulation fund policy and the influencing factors of the real estate market at home and abroad,and expounds some basic theories of the accumulation fund policy and the related methods used in the study.After that the price regulation mechanism of accumulation fund is investigated,which firstly introduces the operation mechanism of the accumulation fund management center itself,followed by the analysis on how the accumulation fund policy influences house prices,and finally has a research on the transmission mechanism of how fund policies adj usting the house price by combining the former two.The empirical part of this paper is divided into two parts.In the first part,the influence degree of accumulation fund policy on house price and the lag of accumulation fund policy are analyzed by adopting VAR model.This part selects the amount of accumulation fund loans,housing consumption extraction in accumulation fund,average sales price of residential commercial housing in Fuzhou city,commercial bank lending rates,consumer price index,per capita disposable income and the money supply as endogenous variables based on collected quarterly data during 2007?2016 in Fuzhou city.In the second part,the adjustment effect of accumulation fund on house prices is further studied by using the method of state space model and Calman filter,where per capita housing accumulation fund loan and per capita housing consumption extraction in accumulation fund are taken as explanatory variables,the number of people paying accumulation fund as control variable,and average sales price of residential commercial housing in Fuzhou city as explained variable.The empirical results show that both the accumulation fund loan policy and the accumulation fund extraction policy have a positive influence on house prices,in which the influence of accumulation fund loan policy is greater with a lag of about one year,while the influence of provident fund extraction policy is smaller with a lag of a half to one year.In the meantime,both the provident fund loan policy and the provident fund extraction policy have positive regulation effects on house prices,in which the accumulation fund loan policy performs better than the accumulation fund extraction policy.Finally,based on the completed research and analysis,from the two perspectives of the provident fund management center and the real estate market,this paper puts forward some suggestions to optimize the housing accumulation fund policy to control housing prices.The study of this paper is of certain guiding significance for the government to use the provident fund policy to regulate housing prices.Also it has a certain reference value for the accumulation fund management center,for the use of provident fund policy to regulate housing prices is more operational.Furthermore,it has practical significance for real estate market to promote its healthy and stable development.