A Research On Local Employment Multiplier And Spatial Spillover Effect In China

After the employment in a region's manufacturing industry increases,on the one hand,it will drive employment in the local service industry because of the rising demand for consumer services,and on the other hand,it will affect the employment of services in other regions.That is to say,it has a multiplier effect on the local service industry,and it will also have a spatial spillover effect on service industry employment in other regions.This paper focuses on the employment multiplier size and spatial spillover effect of the manufacturing industry in 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China.This paper uses employment panel data from 31 provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities in China from 2008 to 2016.Using the instrumental variable method,it is estimated that for every one increase in manufacturing employment in China's provincial regions,it will bring about 1.9 units to the local service sector.Jobs.After that,the spatial self-lag model is established,and the spatial distance weight matrix of the economic distance is used to measure the size of the space spillover effect of the manufacturing industry on the service industry.The regression results show that for every additional unit of employment in the regional manufacturing industry,the service industry in other regions will be squeezed out.Employment is about 1.6 people.This paper argues that the development of regional manufacturing may have dominated the investment in other regions and the negative impact on competitive enterprises in other regions.This has led to a negative space for manufacturing industry to negatively impact the service industry.effect.In the end,it can be concluded that an increase in manufacturing employment in one region can lead to employment in the local service industry,but on the other hand it will squeeze out employment in other regions.If local governments use local employment as a starting point,they can stimulate local manufacturing through policies such as investment promotion,which not only increases employment in the manufacturing sector,but also creates additional jobs in the service sector.However,if the local government wants to take into account the employment in other regions while developing local employment,it is prudent to use preferential policies to attract investment in the manufacturing industry,not only because manufacturing development will negatively affect competitive enterprises in other regions.The impact,and because local capital inflows may also squeeze out investment in other regions,and thus negatively spillover effects on service employment in other regions.