Research On The Impact Of Financial Crisis Events On China's Inbound Tourism Market Segment Demand

As Tourism,as a comprehensive industry,plays an important role in China's economic development.It has made outstanding contributions in promoting China's economic growth,promoting the development of related industries and improving people's living standards.As the earliest market among the three major tourism markets in China,inbound tourism plays a decisive role in the development of tourism.With the development of tourism market segmentation trend becoming more and more obvious,especially under the background of research tourism and aging trend becoming more and more distinct,the research on tourism market segmentation has important practical significance.At the same time,inbound tourism has the characteristics of sensitivity and vulnerability,and the occurrence of crisis events will have a significant impact on its development.In addition,relevant studies also show that price is one of the important factors affecting international tourism demand,and price is more sensitive to the impact of financial crisis events.Therefore,it is of great significance to analyze the impact of financial crisis on the market demand of China's inbound tourism subdivision.At present,the main research idea adopted by academia in studying the impact of crisis events on tourism market is to use tourism demand prediction model to predict the year of crisis events,and then compare the predicted value with the actual value to identify the crisis events.Because of the impact on tourism demand,the accuracy and error of forecasting methods will directly affect the reliability of research results.In summary,on the basis of previous studies on the impact of crisis events on inbound tourism demand,based on the data of inbound tourists from January 2001 to December 2011 in seven tourism market segments with age and tourism purpose as the criteria,this paper uses SARIMA model and X-12 multiplier model to select inbound tourism from January 2001 to November 2011.The total number of market segments predicts the number of inbound tourism market segments in December 2011,and then compares the predicted value with the actual value.Finally,the more accurate X-12 multiplier model is selected to analyze the impact of financial crisis on the demand of inbound tourism market segments in China.The forecast range is the number of inbound tourism market segments from January 2008 to December 2010,and the recovery range is also selected.It compares the number of inbound tourism market segments in 2007 with the number of inbound tourism market segments in 2011.Through the above analysis results,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)X-12 multiplier model can effectively predict China's monthly inbound tourism demand(2)The impact of financial crisis on China's inbound tourism market segments is different.There are great differences in the start time,the maximum percentage time,the duration of the impact and the average damage extent of different types of tourism market segments affected by financial crisis events.Based on the conclusions drawn in this paper,some suggestions are put forward from the following aspects:(1)Combining different tourism demand prediction models to improve the prediction accuracy;(2)Identifying the impact of financial crisis events on different tourism market segments in order to formulate targeted recommendations;(3)Improving China's tourism statistics system and attaching importance to the collection and integration of Tourism market segmentation data.Plan.