Research On Risk Management Of Local Government Debt

China has been reforming and opening up for more than 40 years.In these four decades,China's economic development has achieved remarkable achievements.From a local perspective,in the context of favorable economic development,the social and economic needs are strong.Local governments are vigorously developing their economies,borrowing heavily to invest in infrastructure construction,and the scale of government debt is expanding year by year with an alarming growth rate.After the implementation of the tax-sharing reform in 1994,the local government's financial power and power were not matched,and the fiscal revenue was less than the fiscal expenditure.At the same time,according to the “Budget Law” before 2015,the local government did not have the power to borrow,so objectively speaking,local finance It is indeed in a difficult position.In this context,local governments have a stronger demand for financing debt.The positive role of local debt funds for local economic development should not be denied.Local governments can effectively supply basic public service projects and provide impetus for local economic development.However,the potential risks of local government debt cannot be ignored.With the promulgation of the new “Budget Law” in 2014 and the “Opinions of the State Council on Strengthening Local Government Debt Management”(Guo Fa [2014] No.43),local government debt began to enter a new normative stage,before the local government The situation of confusing debts and lack of effective supervision has improved,but new problems in the field of local government debt have also followed.These problems include the weakening of solvency of individual local governments;some areas are too risky and have exceeded Warning line;frequent occurrence of illegal and illegal financing guarantees;some government and social capital cooperation projects have irregularities.This paper refers to the classification of local government debt by the financial risk matrix of Hana Polackova Brixi,an economist of the World Bank's representative office in China,which divides local government debt into explicit debt and implicit debt,and is also based on the government of Yunnan Province.Debt,as the case study object,based on the original intention of proposing some feasible suggestions for improving local government debt risk management,studied the relevant research of domestic and foreign experts and scholars in detail,and based on the current domestic local debt status,The context of the explicit debt fund movement and the existence of implicit debt are studied separately.For the explicit debts of Yunnan Province,from the four aspects of debt budget,debt lending,debt use management and debt repayment in Yunnan Province,the risks existing in each link are analyzed.The debt budgeting link uses the flow chart method to analyze the risks that may occur in each process node in the debt budgeting link;the debt lending link uses the risk indicator analysis method to calculate indicators such as the debt ratio,debt ratio,and new debt ratio of Yunnan Province,and The comparison of national standards analyzes the risks existing in the loan sector in Yunnan Province;because the government information disclosure is incomplete,it is unable to obtain information on the efficiency of debt capital use.Therefore,this paper analyzes the risks of use and management from the perspective of debt capital investment;The most important risk,this paper uses the debt service ratio,supplemented by general debt,special debt maturity,interest rate and other aspects to analyze the risk of debt repayment.The analysis found that the debt ratio and debt ratio of Yunnan Province decreased year by year.Although the debt ratio was not higher than the warning line but higher than the national average,the debt ratio also exceeded the warning line for several consecutive years.The average bond and special bond years were short and prone to maturity.Mismatch risk,bond interest rate is also generally higher than the national debt interest rate,the interest burden is heavier,but the dominant debt risk is generally controllable.After 2014,under the background of “limit management of local government debt and clear cancellation of the government financing function of financing platform companies”,some local governments began to expand their places with illegal channels such as PPP,government procurement services and government industrial funds.Debt and hidden debt risks have begun to accumulate;local government financing platforms have always been the main carrier of implicit debt,and have not been included in local government budget management,which is also an important hidden danger that triggers hidden risks.Since the local government implicit debt has no unified calculation caliber,this paper selects the local government financing platform,PPP model,industrial fund,government purchase service,and the four local government implicit debts are more common forms of existence for research and analysis.The local government financing platform and PPP model in Yunnan Province have great risks and need to be vigilant;no action has been found to rely on industrial fund disguised financing and fake government purchase services in disguised financing,but it should also be prevented in the first place to prevent such risks.Finally,the full text is integrated,and some suggestions on preventing and controlling debt risk and solving debt problems are proposed from the aspects of explicit debt and implicit debt,in order to provide constructive suggestions for government debt management in China.