The Impact Of Sino-US Trade Friction On China's Soybean Imports

The United States is an important producer and exporter of soybeans in the world,while China is the origin and largest importer of soybeans.The Sino-US soybean trade is of great significance to each other and even to the global soybean market.In 2018,Sino-US trade friction began.As a countermeasure,China imposed a high tariff of25% on US soybean imports,which affected China's soybean imports from the US and greatly reduced the soybean trade between China and the US.Through the literature review,it is easy to see that macroeconomic factors,trade protection policies,the development level of the soybean industry in China and the United States,the supply and demand of soybean substitutes and other interfering factors will have an impact on the growth and fluctuation of the soybean trade between China and the United States.On this basis,through the understanding of the status quo of the world soybean industry and trade,it is analyzed that China's preference for imported soybean is due to the variety difference between domestic soybean and imported soybean,backward soybean production and management,domestic and foreign soybean price inversion phenomenon and other reasons.In this Sino-US trade friction,China's countermeasures against the United States not only led to a sharp decline in U.S.soybean exports to China,but also had an impact on U.S.soybean farmers and the Trump administration.Although China can reject the import of soybean from the United States in the short term,in the long run the Sino-US soybean trade is very important to each other.After the comprehensive qualitative analysis,this paper uses the quantitative analysis to verify and establish the regression equation for the quantity of soybean imported from the United States.The results show that the price of CBOT soybean futures and the change of American soybean yield are positively correlated with the change of American soybean quantity exported to China.Among them,the quantity of American soybean imported by China has a larger elastic coefficient on American soybean yield,which is more susceptible to influence.Then,residual analysis is carried out for the estimation results of regression equation,introduced the data in 2018,compared to the U.S.soybean import quantitybetween the actual values and fitted values of residual error,the results show that occurred on the residual error is bigger in the years of interference factors of soybean import in our country,and in 2018,Sino-US trade friction is the cause of the residual increased significantly.After the analysis,combined with the results of empirical analysis and the reasons for the high external dependence of domestic soybean market,relevant policy recommendations were obtained.To optimize the soybean industry present situation,improve the soybean self-sufficiency and reduce China's soybean imports volume and amount,strive for more say in the international soybean market and the initiative,thus need to improve the domestic soybean support capability,control of soybean processing cost,optimizing the processing chain,actively expand import channels and imported products category,guide the adjustment of consumption structure,and drive the soybean industry in China to go out.