Analysis Of Sino-US Trade In Goods Based On Emergy Theory And Input-Output Method

Since China joined the WTO on December 11th 2001,it has benefited from export-oriented economic policies,and trade development has experienced unprecedented growth.According to the latest statistics,China's trade value of import and export exceeded 30 trillion yuan for the first time in 2018.In 2017,this data reached 277.923 billion yuan,an increase of 14.2%over 2016.In terms of China's trade with major countries and regions in 2017,the United States is China's largest exporter of goods with an export value of 2,910.3 billion yuan,an increase of 14.5%over 2016.The data shows that the scale of Sino-US trade is expanding,and China's trade surplus is also increasing.On the surface,China is a profitable party,but is China still in a favorable side in terms of the ecological benefits behind economic interests?China's production mode is high-energy for a long time.Most of the exported products are still at the low end of the value chain.Although there is a large trade surplus,there may be a large resource consumption and environmental pollution behind it.The traditional method of monetary statistics reflects the human input in the process of product production but ignores the input of nature.In view of this,the famous ecologist H.T.Odum first proposed the latest method of ecological economics to study the value of eco-economic system---energy analysis method in the late 1980s,which introduced solar energy value,a concept that converts different types of energy in the human economic system into energy inputs in natural ecosystems,linking the human economic system to the natural ecosystem.The energy can be added and subtracted,objectively and comprehensively analyzed the gains and losses of ecological benefits,while taking into account the measurement of the natural ecosystem and the human economic system,making up for the lack of monetary statistics.In view of this,this paper tries to analyze the trade surplus of China and the United States from the perspective of energy value.Firstly,on the basis of clearly defining the basic concepts,This paper summarizes the relevant literatures at home and abroad around the two aspects of emergy theory and input-output method about trade and environment,and giving a conclusion that the energy input-output method is suitable for this paper.This paper,based on the energy value analysis and the input-output model,using the input and output tables published by OECD STAN and the National Bureau of Statistics,adding the consumed energy data by various industries to analyze the international trade of China from 1995 to 2016.From the ecological point of view,basing on the import and export energy consumption of the sub-sectors and the net energy consumption of trade,the analysis of China's foreign trade show "double surplus"phenomenon,that is,the situation of trade surplus and economic value surplus coexist.This model is conducive to the sustainable development of China's economy and environment;but in Sino-US trade,China presents a situation in which the trade surplus and the energy deficit coexist,indicating that China's environment and resources are damaged behind the economic benefits of large exports to the United States.Then this article matches the trade sector classification with the input-output table industry classification system,recombining 16 commodity trade industries,and builds the energy value of China's export trade to the United States based on variables such as export volume and energy consumption intensity.The empirical equation model is based on the empirical data of 16 industries in China from 1995 to 2016.The conclusions are as follows:The export volume and energy consumption intensity of various industries in China are positively correlated with the energy value of Sino-US export trade.The degree of environmental regulation in various industries and the scale of attracting foreign investment are negatively correlated.Finally,based on the research results,it is proposed that China needs to speed up the adjustment and optimization of China's industrial structure and trade structure,reducing the production and export of high-energy pollutants,continuously improving China's energy efficiency,accelerating new energy development and upgrading China's environmental regulation.And to increase the intensity of attracting foreign investment and other proposals,We hope that China can actively change the position of the trade emergy deficit country in the future Sino-US trade.