The Green Input-output Analysis On Energy Conservation Of Hubei

Recently, high energy consumed industry develops too fast. The situation of coal transport is very tense. The stern condition never happened since 1978. Bad influence was given to the economical development and the lives of the people, but also the stern environmental pressure was formed as the coal fossil fuel consumption growths so fast.Energy conservation plans of Hubei province reports"Based on optimized structure,enhanced efficiency and reduced consumption, the central government has put a target to increase energy efficiency 20% in 2010 than that of 2005,4.2% every year."First time take that reducing the unit GDP energy consumption 20% as an important quantification target for economic developing.So the consumption of energy is more and more in china. But total reservation amount of energy is little. What's more, it can destroy environment to consume large amount of energy. So how to realize low growth of energy consumption becomes a very important problem.This paper is based on the input-output analysis,Hubei's I-O table and the Hubei's data, combining with home and abroad current situation of input-output analysis, surrounding the Hubei province energy conservation plan target, to carry out numerical calculation and forecasting analysis about energy and economy.Firstly, several kinds of models of energy demanding forecasting were reported. I-O method was chose. And then introduced the correlative content of I-O analysis, including production,developing and study actuality in home and abroad of I-O analysis. Secondly, the green I-O table was built by revising traditional I-O table. It considers the complex interrelationships between energy,environment and economic, is relatively integrity to analyze contamination that energy lets out. When economy developed, the problem of environment is more serious.Finally, introduces the developing situation of Hubei combined with the 11th five years Energy conservation plans of Hubei. I-O analysis and the system analysis method were used to forecast Hubei's energy in several scenarios, and the energy demanding and the energy conservation were calculated, in order to analyze the feasibility of achieving 20% energy conservation plans and to analyze the relationship between economic structural changes and energy requirement. Passing above research, the paper think that based on keeping now energy coefficient of elasticity economy need to keep 10% increasing speed at least in order to achieve 20% energy conservation plans.