Research On The Influencing Factors Of Housing Demand In Taiyuan City

Since China began to fully implement commercial housing in the 1990 s,with the rising economic level,the housing demand of the people's growth has also begun to promote the continuous prosperity of the real estate market.The real estate industry has gradually become an important pillar industry affecting the local economy.Since Taiyuan City is the core of the comprehensive reform demonstration zone in Shanxi,and since the beginning of 2013,Taiyuan City has carried out the transformation of 170 urban villages in the city,realizing the relocation and demolition of the whole village and a large number of shantytown renovation projects,mainly with monetary compensation.The main cause is that a large number of residents in Taiyuan City who have become relocated households have a large amount of monetary compensation,which has led to an increase in market liquidity.The newly generated residential demand among residents has caused the sales price and sales area of commercial housing in the residential market in Taiyuan to rise all the way.Whether the overall housing price increase in Taiyuan City is caused by these factors or due to other housing demand factors such as economic development level,further research is conducted in this paper.It is hoped that through this study,suggestions for suppressing demand can be proposed to cool the overheated property market in Taiyuan.In this paper,the factors affecting the demand for commercial housing in Taiyuan City are divided into four categories: economic factors,social factors,policy factors and other factors.According to the actual situation of Taiyuan City,eleven indicators are selected and grey correlation analysis is used to sort the selected influencing factors.The ranking results are: regional GDP X1> residential construction area X6> per capita urban residents Disposable income X2>Number of permanent residents in urban areas X8>Residential development investment X4>Average housing price X3>Number of households X9>Residential completion area X5>Engel coefficient X7>Rental interest rate X10 for more than five years.After analyzing the factors affecting the housing demand in Taiyuan City for a few years,fully consider the impact degree of the new indicators.Later,using the gray GM(1,1)model and the multiple linear regression model,the housing demand of Taiyuan City will be predicted in the next three years,and the hypothesis is that the development of the real estate market in Taiyuan will go where the abnormal factors are excluded.In the forecast real estate market will be sluggish,housing price fluctuations will be turbulent,provide reliable advice for the government's response measures and the future development of real estate companies.