| In the process of rapid urbanization,the epitaxial expansion mode blurs the urban-rural boundaries.The urban fringe has become the hotspot with the fastest change in land use structure and the most significant evolution of agricultural landscape to suburban landscape and urban landscape.It has great complexity and dynamics in spatial morphology and functional orientation,which brings a series of problems in lands,population,society,economic development,ecological environment,etc.In view of the particularity of land use and the problems brought by urban sprawl,the comprehensive zoning of urban fringe is the frontier and basic work for formulating and implementing urban development strategy.This paper focuses on the urban fringe,a complex dynamic product of urban-rural interaction,and improves the theoretical model of urban fringe.Further,taking Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou as the study case of metropolitan fringe,temporal-spatial pattern of urbanization is predicted,and an evaluation indicator system for development trend of urbanization is constructed.Considering the fuzziness of urban fringe,development-oriented zoning and development strategy research have been completed.The main results are as follows:(1)The temporal-spatial patterns of land use change in urban fringe are simulated based on the improved CLUE-S(the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent)model.Combining the characteristics of land use change in urbanization process,in addition to 13 driving factors,the neighborhood factor is added into Auto logistic regression analysis to describe the spatial autocorrelation of land use.According to regional characteristics of urban fringe,considering restrictive rules and stability conditions of the conversion among land use types,the temporal-spatial evolution of land use is simulated based on demand prediction,and finally a land use map in 2025 is obtained.(2)An evaluation model for accessing urbanization development orientation based on multi-dimensional dynamic indicators is constructed.In order to accurately depict the urbanization evolution in urban fringe,18 dynamic indicators are selected on the basis of the current land use map in 2014 and the land use forecast map in 2025.The characteristics of urbanization in 4 aspects,namely,degree of change,morphological structure,economic benefits and ecological benefits,are described by these indicators which are powerful in explaining the future development trend of urban fringe.(3)Development-oriented zoning of urban fringe is realized by SOFM(Self-Organizing Feature Map)Neural Network Model.The urbanization development-oriented zoning model based on the SOFM network,takes the matrix composed of four-dimensional evaluation indexes of 26 townships(urban sub-districts)in the study area as the input vector.After initialization,training,iteration and other steps,Xiaoshan is divided into 4 urbanization development subarea.Then the reliability of the zoning results are verified,and radar chart and spatial hotspot analysis are used to analyze the characteristics of each subarea in 4 dimensions.Combined with the theoretical model and actual situation,the development orientation of each subarea in urban fringe is determined.Finally,countermeasures are proposed from 4 aspects:reconstruction of spatial pattern,transformation of urban functions,efficient use of land and green healthy development. |
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