Land Use Change Simulation On Urban Fringe Area

Land use and land cover change(LUCC)is a hot spot of global change researches, of which models are sufficient tools to explain the changes of land use. Conversion of Land Use and its Effects modeling framework(CLUE-S)combines bio-environmental and social-economic factors to build up a model having all characteristics, such as connectivity, hierarchical organization,competition, stability, resilience and so on, of land use change, which could simulate the changes of all kinds of land use types at the same time period.There are many drastic land use conflicts in urban fringe area. To balance the fast-growing need of urban construction land and the retaining of high quality farm land, garden plot and forest land, the mechanism,procedures and trends of land use changes have to be analyzed.CLUE-S model has been chosen as the tool to analyze the land use change in Cangshan District, Fuchou City, Fujian Province, After statistical analysis of the relations between land use demand changes and driving factors, the key driving factors have been used for the land use simulation in next step. Based on the land use change driving mechanism and the forecast of future population growth, Tietenberg resources sustainable assignment theory is been used to calculate the future land use demand to the demand module of CLUE-S model.After all the data has been prepared, the future land use spatial pattern has been allocated.It shows the CLUE-S Model is a considerable one which is suitable to the research on simulating small scale and typical region land use change among many models.In general,this study is a deep analysis of land use change driving mechanism in urban fringe, a case of land use change simulation and a supplement of land use change models, which is the first time using CLUE-S Model to analyze urban fringe area in subtropical area; moreover, combining the sustainable resources distribution model,this study advanced promote the use of CLUE-S model.