The Research About Credit Of Real Estate To Housing Price On The Model Of VEC

Since the real estate market reform in 1998,the real estate economy has been in line with the world,and has undergone tremendous changes,providing a realistic exper:imental basis for the reform of China's financial market.In the past 20 years,the domestic economic development has been developing rapidly,and the regulation of financial policies has gradually met the needs of marketization.The construction and development of modern real estate need the support of bank credit.Credit has become the most important means for the government to regulate and control house prices.In recent years,the fluctuation of house prices is fierce year by year,and the intensity of regulation is gradually strengthened.Based on theoretical and empirical research,this paper subdivides credit from supply and demand,and analyzes the impact of credit on house price volatility by combining the factors of land turnover,money supply M2,medium-term and long-term interest rate.On the supply side,credit is shown as the scale of real estate development loans,the larger the scale of development loans,the greater the supply of housing development.the more positive and negative effects on housing prices;on the demand side,credit is shown as the balance of personal housing loans,the higher the balance of personal housing loans,the greater the demand for housing purchase,the purchase of buyers.The more enthusiastic housing behavior is,the positive effect is on housing prices.Land turnover,money supply M2,medium and long-term interest rates and other factors on the one hand can directly affect the level of housing prices,on the other hand,can affect the scale of credit,promote the scale of credit changes indirectly affect the level of housing pricesThrough theoretical analysis and real estate price model,this paper analyzes the possible impact of credit scale,land turnover,money supply M2 and interest rate on house price,establishes VEC model and quantifies the impact of credit scale and indirect factors on house price and indirect factors on credit scale by using impulse response method.The results show that the impact of housing prices on their own is in the first place,the impact of personal housing loan balance on housing prices is higher than the size of development loans.When considering the impact of all factors on housing prices,the order of influence is individual housing loan balance,medium and long-term interest rate,real estate development loan scale,money supply M2,land turnover.It shows that the medium and long-term interest rate as a direct factor can exceed the initial personal housing loan balance unexpectedly in response to the impact of housing prices.For any reason,the lag of money supply M2 and land transaction volume is relatively large.Indirect factors have greater impact on credit supply than credit demand.Land turnover has the greatest impact on credit scale,while the impact of money supply M2 and medium and long-term interest rates is neglected.This paper puts forward some suggestions on how to regulate the amount of credit and how to improve the real estate financial system.