The Decomposition Analysis Of Individual Income Tax Revenue By Introducing The Aging Population Factor

Facing the pressure of population aging,the population structure of China has shift,and the scale of the elderly population has been continuously improved.At the end of 2017,the number of people over 65 years old in China reached 158 million,accounting for 11.4% of the total population.Aging population of China has a large base and rapid growth rate.At the same time,China's family structure tend to be miniaturized,which will inevitably lead to a reduction in the labor force,hinder economic development and affect individual tax revenue in many ways.At present,domestic scholars rarely include the demographic factors in the study of the impact on taxation.From a fresh perspective,this paper took aging as an influencing factor of taxation,used the exponential decomposition method to break down the personal income tax and explored the quantitative relationship between aging changes and individual tax changes.First of all,the text constructs a composite index of tax by rational breakdown structure of the individual tax: the tax revenue is regarded as the product by tax structure,the macro tax burden,the economics,the aging of the aging and the elderly population,including the aging factor as an influential factor of tax.Secondly,with the help of the Log-Average Weight Decomposition Method(LMDI),the national total tax revenue of 2004-2016 is decomposed at the national level,and the total effect of the change in tax is decomposed into the effect of tax structure,macro tax burden,per capital output,aging and the scale of the elderly population;finally,the same method was used to decompose the increment and development rate of individual tax revenues at the eastern,central,western,and northeastern levels.The article can get the following main conclusions: the decomposition results both at the regional level and the national level show that the increase in aging will hinder the growth of individual tax revenue,slow the development of personal income tax : When other effects are fixed,the contribution rate of the population aging effect in 2004-2016reaches-9.5%,which causes the national tax revenue to grow at a rate of-13%,with aloss of 55.50 billion.Among them,the effect of aging in Northeast China is the most serious,and the contribution rate to individual tax revenue has reached-39.1%,causing a growth rate of-22.6%,a decrease of 8.46 billion yuan in total tax revenue.The aging effect of the Midwest is also worthy of caution.Its contribution rates are-19.5% and-13.8%,respectively,resulting in a tax revenue growth rate of-21.8% and-18.8%,a decrease of 9.56 billion yuan and 10.49 billion yuan.The eastern aging level is lower than other regions,and the aging effect contributes-6.1% to tax revenue,resulting in a tax revenue growth rate of-8.9%,a decrease of 26.81 billion yuan;The effects of tax structure and macro tax burden change the personal income tax in the same direction;Economic effect is the source of personal income tax increase because the economic effect greatly drives the growth of individual tax changes,the decomposition effect is different in regions.Therefore,individual tax of China reform should pay more attention to the phenomenon of aging,adjust the tax structure to increase the individual tax revenue,provide relative policy to support the elderly labor force,and encourage the silver-haired people to re-employment to alleviate the adverse effects of aging on taxation.