Research On Decomposition Method And Case Studies Of Regional Energy Consumption Growth Based On Energy Flow Diagram And LMDI

Faced with challenges of global climate change and domestic environment protection, controlling the rapidly increasing energy and coal consumption in China has become an important issue, not only for China but also for the world. Quantitative studies on the influencing factors of energy consumption growth, which consider the rapid and dynamical development of energy system in China, are urgently required to make strategy and policy for controlling energy consumption. Based on case studies of China’s coal consumption and energy consumption in Jing-Jin-Ji area(Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei), this thesis attempts to develop a decomposition method of regional energy consumption by energy allocation Sankey diagram and LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I) method.The methods developed include: 1) a static decomposition method of regional energy consumption: we developed a programmed data-processing method for mapping energy allocation Sankey diagram of China. It considers technical features of each stage in energy system and is based on the First Law of Thermodynamics. The energy allocation diagram mapped can reveal the responsibility of primary energy consumption of each sector in stage of energy transformation and end-use within a year; 2) a dynamic decomposition method of regional energy consumption: we built a decomposition model of regional energy consumption growth based on LMDI method. This model not only can analyze macro influencing factors including population, GDP, economy structure, energy intensity and energy consumption structure, but also technical influencing factors including end-use combustion efficiency and primary energy transoformation factor. This model can calculate the contribution of each influencing factors on historical energy consumption growth and reveal the dynamic mechanism of regional energy consumption growthThe results of the two case studies based on the method mentioned above indicate that: 1) the increasing GDP per capita and the explansion of secondary industry in China are the main influencing factors driving China’s coal consumption growth, while the increasing electricity generation efficiency help retarding the coal consumption growth. 2) the increasing GDP per capita of Jing-Jin-Ji area, increasing population of Jing-Jin(Beijing and Tianjin), the expansion of secondary industry in Ji(Hebei) are the main influencing factors driving energy consumption in Jing-Jin-Ji area, while the decreasing energy intensity and upgrading economy structure of Jing-Jin, and the increasing electricity generation efficiency of Jing-Jin-Ji area helped retarding the energy consumption in Jing-Jin-Ji area.