| The EPC project brings unprecedented profits to the contractor,and the procurement risk is highly valued in all risk categories because of its highest cost ratio and complex source of risk.Due to the large scale of EPC projects,the uncertainty of the procurement risks and the losses caused by them are also increasing.In order to prevent the occurrence of procurement risks and reduce the losses caused by procurement risks,how to scientifically determine appropriate risk control decisionmaking schemes is very important.This thesis takes risk control measures as the starting point to study the procurement risk control decision-making problem of EPC project,in order to establish a method to find the optimal combination of measures.This paper identifies the EPC project procurement risk factors and forms a risk list by combing the existing literature.Considering the limited resources,it is difficult to control all the procurement risks in the EPC project.Therefore,the total effect of the indicators in the structural equation model is used to determine 20 key risks need to control.It is determined that the control cost is minimized and the efficiency of the measures is maximized.Considering the multiple correspondence between risks and measures,and the non-additive nature of the risk control effect between the control measures of the same risk,which is reflected in the two aspects of risk probability and risk loss.Therefore,in the process of measuring the target,the non-additiveness of these two levels is first described by the solution of fuzzy and 2-additive fuzzy measures,and then The correlation between the multiple correspondences and measures between risk and measures is introduced into the measure benefit measurement model,and then the measure of benefit measurement considering the correlation of measures and the measure of benefit measurement without considering the measure are established.By using the traditional traditional target optimization method: multiplication and division method and constraint method,the EPC project key procurement risk control decision-making model with the inputoutput ratio as the comprehensive target and the EPC project key procurement risk control decision-making model with the comprehensive effect of the measures are separately constructed.The final decision model includes four sub-models: the decision-making model with the general objective of maximizing benefit of measures which considers the measure correlation or not;and the decision-making model with the general objective of minimizing input-output ratio which considers the measure correlation or not.The particle swarm algorithm is designed on the flow and algorithm,and then applied to solve the model to get the optimal decision.Finally,an example is used to demonstrate the application and solution process of the model.The results are analyzed to obtain the difference between optimal solutions brought by different comprehensive objectives and the difference between benifit brought by considering the correlation of measures or not.Finally,the model is evaluated and compared.analysis.The results show :1)The risk of EPC project procurement comes from eight aspects: natural risk,political risk,market risk,owner risk,technology risk,management risk,supplier risk,and transportation risk,and includes 29 risk factors,of which 20 are more critical,and most of them come from the parties to the project.2)The optimal solutions of different comprehensive objective functions are different.3)The same comprehensive objective function model has almost the same decisionmaking result regardless of whether the measures are related or not,but the effect is different.This difference is reflected in the fitness function value of the solution.The fitness function value when considering the measure correlation is lower,which indicates that the correlation between measures will reduce the level of benefit of the integrated target.4)The decision model established in this paper is reasonable and effective,and has practicality. |
PDF Full Text Request