The Influence Of China's Shadow Banking System On Real Estate Market And Industrial Structure

In recent years,China's real estate market has continued to develop rapidly under the tightening credit policy.The cyclical rise in housing prices has taken up a large amount of social capital.At the same time,China's economic development faces two major structural imbalances:One is the imbalance of industrial structure;the other is the imbalances between the allocation of financial resourcess and social funding needs.Under this background,China's shadow banking as a product of innovation in the financial system has developed rapidly.It provides financing opportunities for most small and medium-sized innovative enterprises,and it is bound to profoundly affect various aspects of China's macro economy.This article has studied in-depth the intrinsic relations and interactions between shadow banking,China's real estate market,and industrial restructuring and upgrading.Under the "new normal" economic environment,regulatory authorities have rationally guided the flow of shadow bank funds,effectively controlled the real estate market,and promoted the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure.The promotion of sustainable macroeconomic development has important theoretical and practical significance.Based on the existing literature,the article first analyzed the impact of China's shadow banking system on the real estate market and capital flow channels as well as the influence of shadow banking on the industrial structure at the theoretical level.Second,it established a time-varying parameter vector with random fluctuations.The TVP-VAR model empirically tests the intrinsic and dynamic effects of shadow banking,real estate investment,and the rationalization of the industrial structure,and draws the following conclusions:First,the development of the shadow banking is good for investment in the real estate industry and the development of the industrial structure.However,most of the shadow banking system has flowed into the real estate market and raised the level of investment in the real estate industry.Only a small part of the shadow banking funds are used to finance the development of small and medium-sized innovative enterprises,and indirectly promote the industrial restructuring and upgrading;Second,the increase in the level of real estate investment has attracted too much credit funds,so it has seized the financial resources of other industries,especially high-efficiency industries.It is not conducive to the integration of China's industrial structure.Third,as China's industrial structure gradually tends to be rationally optimized,it will generate continuous demand for shadow banking services.Finally,on the basis of the research conclusions of this paper,we propose targeted policy recommendations.