Risk Analysis Of Shadow Bank Credit

Although China’s shadow banking still in its infancy compared with the West developed countries, since 2010, especially in the case of China’s macro tightening of monetary policy, China’s shadow banking system has achieved rapid development, In order to circumvent financial regulation and chase to high profits, China’s shadow banks put a lot of money into real estate and local financing platform for the real economy in order to meet the strong demand for funds. Chinese-style hand shadow banking realized high profits through avoid regulation, it also might gather some of the potential financial risks if not handled properly,at the same time,it could evolve into a systemic risk in financial markets and caused serious harm to the majority of investors. Therefore, how to ease the shadow banking development in a reasonable direction, while optimizing the current regulation of the shadow banking has become a very important issue.The paper divided into six parts:The first part is an introduction, describes the background and significance of this research, and research from abroad scholars, and introduced the study method, content and research ideas. The second part of the shadow banking overview of the theory expounded on the basis of the definition of shadow banking abroad, features, etc., and analysis the difference between the United States and the shadow banking contact. The third part is the status of Chinese-style shadow banking development, the type and the impact on the real estate market, according to the above definition of shadow banking, estimates about China’s shadow banking scale. The fourth part of the paper is elaborate operating mechanism of the shadow banking system’s impact on the real estate market, laid the theoretical foundation for conducting empirical research. The fifth part of the paper is about the the average empirical analysis of balance of the shadow banking loans, bank credit balance sheet 70 cities and new housing price index, and interpretation of empirical results. Chapter VI is about the conclusions and policy recommendations, the full text of this part of the research conducted a brief summary, and propose policy recommendations on the basis of the conclusions of the study.Paper selected in January 2006 to December 2013 monthly data and 70 cities the average price index for new housing, bank credit loans three variables shadow banking. unit root test, cointegration test and Grand Jay test results establish VAR model, meanwhile by the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition of empirical research shadow banking, bank credit impact on real estate sales prices. through the study found, the shadow banking loans have an important impact on real estate sales prices, Strengthening the shadow banking supervision is important for stabilizing real estate prices.