Research On The Influence Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On The Mark-Up Rate Of Manufacturing Export Enterprises

As the process of global economic integration continues to accelerate,the trade activities between countries are frequent,and the import and export volume of the world keep growing.However,due to different economic policies implemented by different countries,it is not only impossible for export enterprises to predict their own economic policies,but also difficult to predict the policies of importing countries.In the Sino-US trade war that took place in 2018,the United States imposed tariffs on China's manufacturing products which affected the export of China's manufacturing enterprises to some extent,and in the case of uncertain economic policies,how the mark-up rate of export enterprises will be changed needs further study.Since the economic policy uncertainty of China increased to a certain extent when China joined the WTO in 2001,it is of certain significance to select the data of manufacturing export enterprises in this period for research and analysis.This paper use the data of manufacturing export enterprises in the China Industrial Enterprises Database from 2000 to 2007 to measure mark-up rate,using the index of China's economic policy uncertainty measured by Yun Huang and Paul Luk to construct economic policy uncertainty indicators,based on the competition incentive effects,real options theory,export learning effect,quality upgrading effect,technology spillover effect,rational expectation theory and the theory of endogenous growth,and using OLS model,fixed effect model,IV model and PPML model for benchmark regression analysis.Due to the imbalance of regional economic development in our country and the different policy applicable to the different types of enterprises,manufacturing export enterprises by region are divided into the eastern provinces,central provinces,western provinces and the northeastern provinces,according to the enterprise ownership are divided into state-owned enterprises,private enterprises and foreign enterprises,and carry out regression analysis respectively.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)There is a significant negative correlation between the China's economic policy uncertainty and the mark-up rate of manufacturing export enterprises.When economic policy uncertainty fluctuates,the enterprise's financing ability is reduced,liquidity is low,and the uncertain external environment has caused many export enterprises to adopt a wait-and-see attitude toward the international market,and feel hesitate to improve productivity,to invest or to expand production,even after waiting for the economic environment becomes clear again to make decisions to reduce risks that brought by uncertainty,the stagnation of the production and operation of an enterprise means that the marginal cost increases,which leads to the decline of mark-up rate;(2)The uncertainty of China's economic policy has less impact on the eastern provinces than the central,western and northeastern provinces.This is because the number of enterprises in eastern provinces is large,the market share is high,the technology development speed is fast,the capital scale is relatively abundant,and the ability to resist risks is strong.Therefore,when the economic uncertainty increases,it will not have a major impact on the structure,productivity and mark-up rate of the enterprises in a short period of time;(3)The impact of China's economic policies uncertainty on state-owned enterprises is less than that of private enterprises and foreign enterprises.The reason is because the policy distance between state-owned enterprises and the government policy is relatively close.When the government adjusts the policy system,it will give preference to the direction of change that is conducive to the development of state-owned enterprises,avoid the risks caused by the policy as much as possible.Moreover,the market competitiveness of state-owned enterprises with monopolistic nature is greater than private enterprises and foreign enterprises,so the decline of enterprises mark-up rate is small.The main contribution of this paper is to analyze the influence of China's economic policy uncertainty on the mark-up rate of manufacturing export enterprises by using two different economic policy uncertainty indexes from the perspective of exporting countries,which enriches the theoretical and empirical research in related fields.In the empirical analysis,the individual impact of enterprises,the endogeneity between variables and the heteroscedasticity problem in the model are considered,and the robustness test of the research conclusion is carried out with different calculation methods,which enhances the reliability of the results.This study provides the basis for the government to formulate policies,and provides the direction for the future development of enterprises.It has practical significance for creating a fair market competition environment,narrowing the development gap between different regions,and maintaining the normal mark-up rate level of manufacturing export enterprises.