Research On The Impact Of U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty On China's Industrial Products Export To The U.S.

Since 2008,the global economic crisis and the European debt crisis have successively erupted,and anti-globalization forces represented by the United States have risen.The Sino-U.S.Trade war began in 2018.The U.S.government has implemented a series of measures such as raising tariffs and sanctioning related enterprises for many types of Chinese exports.At a time when trade relations between China and the United States are so close,the adjustment of US economic policy is bound to affect China,an important trading partner.As the main product category of China's exports to the United States,industrial products are bound to be severely affected.At present,under the scenario that exports,especially industrial products,are still an important force driving China's economic growth,it seems meaningful to study the impact of the uncertainty of US economic policy on China's industrial products exports.This article first studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on export trade from a theoretical perspective.By assuming and establishing a relationship,it can be found that the rise of economic policy uncertainty will suppress the impact of export trade,and also change the threshold of productivity through trade costs,causing companies to choose whether to enter the market of the destination country according to their own productivity.After analyzing the mechanism,this article analyzes the uncertainty of US economic policy,starting with the main economic policies of the United States,and dividing them into three major economic policies: fiscal,monetary,and trade.We can see by combing analysis,usually in the United States suffered external shocks,such as the 2001 "911" incident,the 2008 global financial crisis,leading to a market economy experienced a significant decline,the US government will introduce the diversity of economic policies in order to save American internal market economy.Combined with the economic policy uncertainty index,we can find that when the US government issues a variety of economic policies,the uncertainty of the US economic policy will increase significantly,and when the policy is mainly stabilized,the uncertainty of the economic policy will also be stable state.Secondly,it analyzes China's export trade to US industrial products through four aspects: scale,method,structure,and price.It can be found that China's exports of industrial products to the United States account for a relatively large proportion of China's exports to the United States,both between 96% and 97%.In2008-2009,the growth rate of China's exports of industrial products to the United States decreased significantly,and it showed a negative growth for the first time in 2009;it also showed a negative growth in 2019.It has little effect on trade methods.In terms of trade structure,electromechanical products have always accounted for the majority of exports,but they have declined slightly during the financial crisis and the Sino-US trade war.In terms of trade prices,both 2008 and 2017 showed relatively large negative growth rates.Combined with the analysis of US economic policy,we can draw a rough conclusion: the uncertainty of US economic policy is negatively correlated with China's export trade to US industrial products.After obtaining general conclusions through analysis of the current situation,this article uses the data of China 's exports of industrial products to the United States from 2001 to 2019,combined with the uncertainty index of the US economic policy to measure the uncertainty of the US economic policy,and analyzes to obtain empirical results.The results of the study show that the increase in the uncertainty of the US economic policy will obviously lead to a reduction in China's export trade volume of industrial products to the US,but it will be less affected by economic policy uncertainty for products containing higher technology.