The Impact Of Trade Policy Uncertainty On The Diversity Of Export Products

Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008,compared with the past,uncertainties have been increasing all over the world.In recent years,President Trump announced the withdrawal of the United States from the TPP agreement,the outbreak of trade war between China and the United States and other major events represent the rising tide of anti-globalization,which also leads to the increasing uncertainty of China's trade policy year by year.At the same time,the growth of foreign trade in China shows a weak phenomenon,which has the effect of internal factors,but the impact of external factors on China's foreign trade cannot be ignored.Therefore,this paper mainly explores the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the diversification of export products.In this paper,we build a model that introduces the uncertainty factor of trade policy to explore whether the uncertainty of China's trade policy will affect the diversity of export products.And based on the theoretical analysis,the conclusion of the theoretical analysis is further empirically tested.In the empirical analysis,the variables of trade policy uncertainty are included in the expanded gravitation model,and the hereunder-Hirschman index,which is used to measure the diversity of export products,and the Chinese trade policy uncertainty index,which is calculated by Huang and Luk(2018),are used to measure the trade policy uncertainty The fixed effect model and Poisson's pseudo maximum likelihood estimation are used to analyze the regression of the model,to explore the impact of trade policy uncertainty on export product diversity.According to the economic development level of trade partner countries,the overall sample is divided into two subsamples,developed countries and emerging economies,and regression analysis are carried out to further analyze whether the uncertainty of trade policy will have a different impact on the diversity of export products due to the different level of economic development.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)It is concluded that the increase of trade policy uncertainty will restrain the export product diversity of China by adding trade policy uncertainty factors into the heterogeneous enterprise model.This is because the uncertainty of trade policy will increase the export critical productivity.When the enterprise's productivity is lower than the export critical productivity,the enterprise's export will not be able to make profits or even losses.At this time,the export enterprises will choose to stop exporting,which will affect the level of diversity of our export products.(2)The herfindar-Hirschman index calculated from the hs1992 sextant trade data of China and 20 major trading partners in the United Nations commodity trade database is used to measure the level of China's export product diversification.It is found that the overall level of China's export product diversity is in a slight decline in 2000-2018.At the national level,the results show that China's export diversity level for most countries is relatively stable,but for Greece,South Korea,the Netherlands,Malaysia,Norway,France,the Philippines,the United States and Singapore,the nine countries' export product diversity has more obvious fluctuations.(3)Empirical analysis verifies the conclusion that the uncertainty of trade policy will lead to the decline of China's export diversification.Based on the empirical research at the national level,the results empirical regression shows that the increase of trade policy uncertainty will restrain the increase of export product diversity.And the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the diversity of export products of developed countries and emerging market economies is different.The impact of trade policy uncertainty on the diversity of export products of China is more sensitive in countries with lower economic development level.In this paper,the uncertainty of domestic trade policy is included in the scope of the investigation that affects the diversity of export products,which is helpful to further understand the relationship between the uncertainty of trade policy and the diversity of export.At the same time,it also provides corresponding policy suggestions for the government,enterprises and other international trade participants to provide stable foreign trade environment for Chinese enterprises.