Research On Regional Real Estate Risk Early Warning Based On Spatial Statistics Theory

In recent years,with the rapid development of housing system reform and economy,the real estate industry has an increasingly prominent impact on the national economy,and has an inseparable link with the economic and cultural development of society.In a sense,the problems in the real estate market are not only economic problems but also social problems.Therefore,it is urgent to establish a credible regional real estate early warning model.It is the guarantee for the healthy development of the real estate industry to monitor and forecast the possible alarms in the operation of the market,to grasp the current situation of the real estate market in time and to forecast the possible alarms in time.Based on the basic theory and method of real estate early warning,and combined with the actual situation of urban real estate market development in China,this paper chooses Liaoning real estate market as the research object.According to the existing research results of indicators in China,13 indicators are selected to constitute the early warning indicator system of Liaoning real estate market from four aspects: the coordination between real estate and national economy,the coordination of real estate industry itself,the relationship between market supply and demand,and the development of real estate market.Based on the characteristics of time series and spatial series,this paper establishes regional real estate risk early warning model in Liaoning Province by using traditional multiple regression analysis and spatial statistical analysis.(1)Using the data of early warning indicators in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2017,using principal component analysis to synthesize comprehensive early warning index,dividing the early warning interval of comprehensive early warning index according to error theory,using multiple linear regression model and multiple logistic regression model respectively to analyze the warning situation,and calculating the comprehensive early warning index of real estate in Liaoning Province in 2018,according to the principle of dividing the early warning interval,Forecast the real estate market early warning situation in 2018.Both models show that the comprehensive real estate police situation in Liaoning Province in 2018 is normal.(2)A spatial linear regression model of regional real estate is proposed.Based on spatial linear regression theory,using Geoda software to carry out spatial autocorrelation,cluster analysis and regression analysis on 14 prefecture-level cities in Liaoning Province,the spatial regression model of real estate risk early warning in Liaoning Province was established,and GDP,population and per capita disposable income of residents were determined as effective variables.According to the analysis of effective variables,the early warning area is divided into four levels.The final model reflects the distribution of housing prices in the early warning area and realizes the prediction of early warning in the space.(3)Finally,the conclusion of real estate risk early warning is formed,which shows the feasibility of the real estate risk early warning model established by this research institute.The theoretical analysis is full and practical.It provides a scientific basis for the government to guide and control the real estate,and plays an active auxiliary role.