Research On The Potential Of Bilateral Trade Between China And India Under The Background Of "The Belt And Road"

India and China are located in Asia and have similar geographical locations.They are both members of the BRICS countries and rising Emerging Economies,and their development momentum is strong.At the same time,due to its geographical location and economic scale,India has become an important partner for China's “The Belt and Road”construction.In recent years,the trade development between China and India is not in harmony with its economic scale.There is huge trade potential between China and India.The construction of “The Belt and Road” will also bring new opportunities and challenges to trade development between the two countries.Therefore,this paper is of great significance to the study of trade relations between China and India in the context of “The Belt and Road”.The paper is divided into five parts.That is introduction,the status quo of bilateral trade development between China and India,analysis of the impact of “The Belt and Road” construction on the development of bilateral trade between China and India,the measurement of Sino-Indian bilateral trade potential in the context of “The Belt and Road” and corresponding conclusions and recommendations.The paper starts from the perspective of Sino-Indian trade potential under the background of“The Belt and Road”,analyzes the status quo of Sino-Indian bilateral trade development,and selects the size of China-India economy,population,foreign trade dependence,demand differences,China's direct investment in India as explanatory variables.As the explanatory variable,the trade amount is empirically analyzed by the stochastic frontal gravity model for the 2003-2016 Sino-Indian data,and then the Sino-Indian bilateral trade potential is measured.This paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The coexistence of competition and complementarity in the bilateral trade relations between China and India,but complementarity,and “The Belt and Road” Initiative has a certain role in promoting the expansion of bilateral trade between China and India;(2)The economic scale of China and India and India's dependence on foreign trade have a positive correlation with the bilateral trade volume between China and India.China's dependence on foreign trade has a negative correlation with the bilateral trade volume between China and India,and Proof from an empirical perspective “The Belt and Road” Initiative has certain impetus to Sino-Indian bilateral trade;(3)Sino-Indian bilateral trade has great potential,and the market between the two countries is not saturated yet,and there is much room for improvement.